134
FXUS63 KEAX 140547
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1247 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms linger through the
overnight.

- A small break in the rain is expected Tuesday night - Wednesday.

- Further chances for showers and storms return later this week
  continuing into next week. Multiple days of rain could lead to
  slight flooding concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Intermittent showers with isolated thunderstorms present a rather
grey and gloomy day across the region. A weak midlatitude cyclone is
slowly migrating across the central CONUS. This cut off low did
encourage enough moisture to advect into the region to make the
atmosphere fairly saturated and slightly turbulent and unstable.
This can be seen with several low hanging scud clouds under the
stratus deck. Enough instability is expected for isolated
thunderstorms across the area this afternoon and evening; however,
the lack of deep southerly flow and inhibited solar heating keep
convection from being all that strong. PWAT values remain around 1-
1.2 inches indicate the potential for isolated heavy downpours,
especially if a deeper updraft is able to organize. So far there
have been several reports of efficient heavy rainfall. Fortunately
rates have been slow enough that flash flooding concerns remain at
bay; however, increased flow into creeks and streams with small
rises are possible.

The low slowly pushes eastward through the evening and overnight
with rain coverage becoming more isolated as it departs. It stalls
out of the St. Louis metro Tuesday afternoon keeping isolated rain
chances around through sunset; however, most will likely remain dry.
Skies looks to continue to remain grey sans those in far NW MO.
Clouds look to break early Wednesday, unfortunately, it will be dark
so sunshine remains scarce as more clouds move in ahead of another
approaching system expected to arrive Thursday. Interestingly
enough, northwest flow behind the current system and ahead of the
next may push down some wildfire smoke from interior Canada into the
area. Impacts to air quality are not expected to be as high as what
is anticipated across the Upper Midwest; however, some minor impacts
are possible. Some refraction of sunlight during the dawn and dusk
hours may lead to some vivid coloring complimenting the northern
lights that was witnessed last weekend.

The broad scale upper level pattern remains more or less zonal with
weak midlatitude cyclones/waves embedded within. As these cut off
lows traverse the central CONUS, the abrupt westerly turn of winds
across the Ozarks truncates deep Gulf moisture advection which in
turn limits the northward progress of unstable air. While this does
not hamper chances for rainfall, it does curtail the chances for
strong to severe storms. Showers and thunderstorms return early
Thursday as another wave moves through the region. once again
scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are anticipated. PWAT
values throughout the period remain above 1 inch keeping the
possibility for efficient heavy rainfall. Chances for river and
creek flooding slowly increase as more rain falls; however, much of
that risk is dependent on the efficiency of runoff. Flash flooding
is also possible; however, multi-day accumulations slightly below
flash flood guidance so at this juncture flash flooding looks to be
isolated and acute in nature. Guidance is likely to change as rain
accumulates over the next several days.

Long term guidance continues this zonal pattern with embedded waves
into early next week. The GFS suggests a chance for one of these
waves to tap into the warmer more moist air in the Gulf advecting
into the region which could bring chances for some stronger storms.
Uncertainty of these storms remains high as any oscillation in the
track of these lows can significantly impact the expected weather.
Extended model guidance shows confidence in this weather pattern of
intermittent showers and storms continuing for the next several
days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Conditions are currently ranging from IFR-VFR across the area. MVFR
ceilings are expected after 11Z. MVFR conditions are expected
through 19Z before becoming VFR, however ceilings may linger around
even after current TAF timing reflects. Winds will be out of the
north around 10 knots for the duration of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Collier