757
FXUS65 KMSO 080914
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
314 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Warmest day of the week today.

- Increasing chance of thunderstorms this afternoon through Wednesday,
  mainly north central Idaho and southwest Montana.

- Cooler, showery and breezy Thursday.

High pressure will peak over the region today, bringing the
warmest temperatures of the week. Many locations will reach into
the 90s and even low 100s, primarily the lower valleys of north
central Idaho. The combination of warm overnight temperatures and
hot daytime temperatures has led to the issuance of a heat
advisory for areas such as Orofino and Riggins. As the flow aloft
begins to transition to southwesterly, enough mid level moisture
will be transported into the region to produce isolated
thunderstorms. Storms are mainly expected across Idaho County,
Lemhi County and southwest Montana. Gusty winds and lightning will
be the main threats, with high resolution models showing gust
potential up to 50 mph.

Moisture will continue to increase Tuesday night, with high-
resolution models showing isolated showers and thunderstorms.
More widespread thunderstorms are expected late Wednesday
afternoon through the evening. Breezy winds will also develop
across north-central Idaho and western Montana Wednesday
afternoon, which, combined with hot and dry conditions, will
increase fire weather concerns, especially in north-central Idaho.

Cooler conditions are anticipated for Thursday as a trough of low
pressure drops out of Canada into northwest Montana. Showery
conditions are anticipated across western Montana, while north
central Idaho will remain mostly dry. The best chance of a wetting
rain (0.10" or more) is across northwest Montana, where there is a
roughly 50 to 60 percent chance. Thursday will also be breezy
region wide, but cooler conditions and increased moisture should
help limit fire weather concerns.

Warm and dry conditions will return by next weekend as high
pressure builds back over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure will peak Tuesday, bringing hot
temperatures and density altitude concerns, especially in north-
central Idaho where valley highs will reach 100-108F with warm
overnight lows. A heat advisory is in effect.

Moisture will increase from the southwest, with scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible this afternoon,
mainly over the southern half of Idaho County, Lemhi County, and
into southwest Montana. Gusty outflow winds will be the main
hazard, potentially up to 45 kts. Isolated showers or storms may
linger overnight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for
     Palouse/Hells Canyon.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening
     for Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River Region...
     Orofino/Grangeville Region.

&&

$$