857
FXUS65 KRIW 131852
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1252 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Series of weak shortwaves through Thursday brings sporadic
  rain showers/thunderstorms and near average temperatures.

- Warming trend by week`s end into the weekend with any shower
  activity isolated to the higher terrain west of the Divide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

IR shows a pretty meridional pattern with weak ridging to the
east and a weak shortwave to the west. Sporadic rain showers
and a couple isolated thunderstorms can be had this Monday
afternoon for much of the northern half of the CWA east of the
Divide. Nothing severe nor significant but a couple lightning
strikes expected. As the main trough pushes through supporting a
weak cold front for Tuesday, expect more widespread rain
showers and thunderstorms much of the day. Cooler temperatures
behind the aforementioned front back to near average for this
time of year. There is not really much of an impact with this
system being very progressive and not much instability nor PVA
to work with. Divergence aloft is weak as well being a more
flattened meridional pattern. Becoming less active Wednesday as
the trough pushes east with ridging building in from the
southwest by week`s end.

Warming trend and mainly dry conditions expected for Friday and
over the weekend into the long term. Temperatures back to above
average for this time of year with below average precipitation.
Any activity will be limited to higher terrain west of the
Divide with a more zonal westerly upper level flow. There could
be some ripples over time through the pattern but overall, it
looks to be quite stagnant through the rest of the month. CPC
outlooks concur as well. Fire weather could come to the
forefront as fuels dry out with the warming trend this weekend
as winds increase to some weaker gusts but enough to warrant to
be watched going forward with nothing else really to be of
significance at this point in time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1048 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024

West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals

A couple of shortwaves will slide through the region over the next
24 hours. These shortwaves will bring scattered rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms to northern/central portions of the area,
mainly this afternoon/evening. The chance remains too low (30%) for
prevailing -SHRA, so have VCSH for KBPI/KPNA/KRKS terminals. At KRKS
conditions will remain dry through the TAF period. Sustained wind
around 15 knots, with gusts to 25 knots will occur at KRKS/KPNA/KBPI
terminals through the afternoon hours today. Gusty erratic wind
likely (80%) with any showers/storms. Similar conditions expected on
Tuesday, but thunderstorms will be more scattered than isolated
Tuesday afternoon.

East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals

A couple of shortwaves will slide through the region over the next
24 hours. These shortwaves will bring scattered rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms to northern/central portions of the area,
mainly this afternoon/evening. The best chance of isolated
thunderstorms will be at KCOD/KWRL, so went with VCTS from 21Z-02Z
this afternoon for these terminals. An area of -SHRA to SHRA is
possible (50%) at KWRL early Tuesday morning. Wind will be 10-15
knots this afternoon. Gusty erratic wind likely (80%) with any
showers/storms. Similar conditions expected on Tuesday, but
thunderstorms will be more scattered than isolated Tuesday afternoon.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lowe
AVIATION...Rowe