Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 221541

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
941 AM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A stable westerly flow aloft will maintain warm and
dry conditions across much of Utah today. A weak weather
disturbance will bring some shower activity to northern Utah and
southwest Wyoming late tonight through Monday.


.DISCUSSION...A diffluent westerly flow across Utah will bring
generally dry conditions with warmer temperatures across most of
the forecast area today. One caveat to this would be the moisture
working east-northeast out of southern Nevada this morning. The
various model guidance do show this moisture blossoming into
convective cloud cover spawned by differential heating over the
higher terrain this afternoon. Can`t entirely rule out showers
late this afternoon/early this evening, though suspect that the
convection that develops will not be able to generate deep
updrafts and thus won`t produce more than isolated light showers.

The shortwave moving into the Pacific Northwest this morning will
continue east across the northern Rockies/northern Great Basin
later this afternoon through tonight/early Tuesday. The initial
push of this feature into northern Utah will show sufficient
baroclinic structure and jet support for isolated/scattered
convection later tonight/Monday. Thunderstorms could form where
the jet support is strongest at trough passage near the Idaho
border Monday morning/early afternoon.

The GFS and ECMWF are still indicating a mid-level circulation
will form out of this trough over the northern Plains, with a
weak trough axis extending back across Wyoming and into northern
Utah late Monday night/Tuesday. The best chance for precip along
the trough, such as it is, will extend from the Cache valley east
across southwest Wyoming in vicinity to the colder air aloft
during the morning through early afternoon hours.

The weak near 700mb easterly flow which develop Tuesday afternoon
along with a favorable east-northeast surface gradient across
Wyoming and northern Utah will likely produce enhanced canyon
winds along the northern Wasatch Front Tuesday night/early
Wednesday. These winds are not expected to reach advisory criteria
at this time.

High pressure aloft will expand east across the interior west
beginning Wednesday. Very warm temperatures are expected across
the area mid to late week, with at best isolated mountain showers
through Thursday.


.AVIATION...Southeast winds at the SLC terminal are expected to
switch to the northwest around 19-20Z today, with a slight chance
that winds remain southerly or light and variable through 22Z.





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