236
FXUS65 KTFX 101730
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1130 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Cold front moves through today bringing cooler temperatures,
   gusty winds, and a chance for rain.

 - Widespread wind gusts of 20-30 mph are possible with the
   strongest winds expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and
   along north-south oriented valleys.

 - The middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
/Issued 902 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025/

No major changes made for the update. I added low PoPs to account
for isolated light showers along the Northern Continental Divide
this morning ahead of the cold front. The cold front passage will
bring isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in North-
Central MT. Inverted V vertical profile soundings will bring the
typical gusty winds of up to 40-45 mph, but no severe storms are
expected. Breezy winds continue across the North-Central MT plains
today from the front and 700 mb winds. -Wilson

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 902 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025/

A strong shortwave trough will pass through Montana today and
tomorrow bringing much cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and a
chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
particularly across north-central Montana. Surface winds will
shift from out of the west this morning to out of the northwest by
the early afternoon before becoming northerly by the late
afternoon/early evening. Widespread gusts up to 35 mph are
expected with some isolated higher gusts possible, particularly
along the Rocky Mountain Front and north-south oriented valleys.

Behind the trough, northwest flow sets up Saturday into Sunday
allowing for warmer temperatures to return to the region with
periods of showers and thunderstorms possible across the region.
Another shortwave starts to make its way down from British
Columbia Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning bringing cooler
temperatures towards the middle part of the week with a chance for
more widespread rain across the region.  -thor


&&

.AVIATION...
10/18Z TAF Period

Overall, VFR conditions will prevail across the CWA through the
period. Expect passing clouds/isolated thunderstorms through early
evening, mainly north of a line from Cut Bank to Havre. Otherwise,
quiet, but breezy conditions expected today. Winds diminish this
evening. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  85  47  79  53 /  10  20   0   0
CTB  75  42  78  50 /  40  20   0   0
HLN  86  51  82  54 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  89  49  81  48 /   0  20  10   0
WYS  79  42  74  37 /  10  20  20   0
DLN  83  47  78  47 /   0  10   0   0
HVR  84  47  80  52 /  20  20   0   0
LWT  83  44  73  50 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls