711
FXUS65 KTFX 250524
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1124 PM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures continue to rise to slightly above normal through
  the weekend.

- Daily chances of precipitation continues through Saturday, and
  drier conditions Sunday and Monday.

- Temperatures remain above normal for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 536 PM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

High pressure in place today will keep things mostly dry. However, a
weak shortwave will produce isolated showers and a thunderstorm or
two this afternoon in Southwest MT. Showers will be brief and
light. A small trough Wednesday and Thursday transitioning to
zonal flow aloft Friday and Saturday will bring a few disturbances
through to keep daily chances for rain through Saturday. Thursday
still looks to be the best chances for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms as a small upper-level shortwave moves
through. An increase in deep layer shear will also bring the
potential for a few strong storms. Sunday and Monday, an upper
level ridge builds in, which will bring warmer and drier
conditions to the region. Temperatures will slightly increase for
the beginning of the week.


 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Weak forcing aloft and instability will limit precipitation to
isolated dinky showers and thunderstorms in Southwest MT.
Wednesday is a similar story, with weak dynamics keeping isolated
showers and thunderstorms weak. Better forcing arrives Thursday
with the surface front and shortwave aloft. CAPE will be weak, but
an increase in shear and mid level lapse rates w

General dry conditions, light winds, and VFR conditions prevail
for the duration of the TAF period. However, isolated
shower/thunderstorm activity will persist over the higher terrain
of Southwest Montana through 25/04z. There is less than a 20%
chance for impacts to the area terminals. Also degraded slantwise
visibility upon ascent/descent will continue to occur over the
next day or so as haze aloft from Canadian and other western US
wildfires moves across the region. Southwesterly flow aloft
becomes more established over the Northern Rockies on Wednesday
and brings more isolated afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms. - RCGill try to bring
a few strong thunderstorms. The main limiting factor will be if
precipitation fires off in the morning along the front.

There remains some uncertainty in how long the warm and dry
weather stays after Monday. Long range models hint at a closed
upper-level low forming along CA/NV beginning of next week. This
may bring a southwest flow aloft pattern, advecting in moisture
and a series of upper-level disturbances to keep slight chances
for showers next week. -Wilson

&&

.AVIATION...
25/06Z TAF Period

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. A
fairly light southwest flow aloft turns more westerly on Wednesday
with an increase in mid level moisture/clouds through the day but
only a slight chance for high-based showers across portions of
north-central MT Wednesday afternoon. Surface winds remain light
as well with a turn to more westerly winds by Wednesday afternoon.
Hoenisch

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  84  53  81 /   0  10  20  40
CTB  45  79  50  76 /  10  10  20  20
HLN  50  82  54  78 /   0  10  10  40
BZN  44  84  50  84 /  20   0   0  20
WYS  32  72  35  74 /  20  10   0  10
DLN  43  78  48  79 /  20   0   0  20
HVR  50  86  55  83 /   0  10  20  20
LWT  48  79  51  78 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls