701
FXUS62 KCAE 100746
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
346 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible again today as
a cold front approaches and moves through the area today. High
pressure then moves in for the weekend, bringing dry weather.
The high moves offshore Monday and increasing moisture supports
showers and thunderstorms returning for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Currently, satellite imagery shows some high clouds with some
scattered stratus across the area. Upper air analysis shows that
there are a couple of shortwaves over the Southeast; one moving
through Georgia and one right behind it over Alabama. Both of
these features have clusters of showers and storms associated
with them. The first cluster is currently moving off shore while
the second cluster is entering western Georgia. A larger scale
trough is located over the Upper Midwest as well. Surface
observations indicate temperatures are generally in the upper
60s to around 70.

Today...The shortwave crossing the Deep South early this morning
is expected to continue quickly move eastward, bringing the
chance for showers and embedded thunderstorms along with it. The
best chance for precipitation from this wave is across the
southern portions of the forecast area. By the time it arrives
to our neck of the woods, instability should be lacking somewhat
so the severe weather threat with this round of activity is low.
Latest guidance has this cluster moving through the region
rather quickly, allowing for some clearing behind it. The
clearing is will likely lead to some destabilization in the
atmosphere as temperatures are forecast to rise into the 80s.
The larger scale trough over the Upper Midwest is expected to
translate toward the Southeast. An associated surface cold front
is also anticipated to move through the area this afternoon.
Latest hi-res guidance indicates some scattered convection
initiation occurring this afternoon as the front moves through
the area. Ahead of the front, a ribbon of instability is
anticipated to develop. The HREF mean surface based CAPE is
showing a mean of 1000-1500 J/kg moving with 0-6 km mean bulk
shear values of 40+ knots, which should be sufficient enough to
produce strong to potentially severe storms. The strongest
energy from the crossing trough is forecast to be along and
north of the Northern Midlands into the PeeDee. This is where
the highest risk of severe weather exists this afternoon.
Damaging winds will be the main threat with any storms that do
form, with hail and tornadoes being secondary threats. As such,
SPC has a slight risk (2/5) of severe weather for the far
eastern portions of Chesterfield County and a marginal risk
(1/5) everywhere else in the forecast area. The overall severe
threat today is dependent on how quickly the morning activity
moves out of the region.

Tonight: After the cold front and associated convection exits
the region this evening, clearing skies are expected to be
ushered in tonight. North to northwest winds are also expected
to bring some cooler temperatures tonight compared to the past
several nights with lows dropping into the 50s for most
locations. A few upper 40s aren`t out of the question in the
northern and western portions of the forecast area.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday and Saturday night: Upper trough axis will be shifting east
of the forecast area with a drier air mass building over the region
as PWATs are around a half inch. A secondary shortwave trough is
forecast to dive into the Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon which will
push a weak frontal boundary through the forecast area Saturday
night. PWATs rise to just under and inch with the boundary but
moisture remains limited and low/mid level flow is from the
northwest with a downslope component so do not expect any rain.
Temperatures on Saturday are expected to be slightly below normal
with highs in the 70s and lows Saturday night in the low to mid 50s

Sunday and Sunday night: Shortwave ridging will move over the
forecast area on Sunday as the shortwave trough to the north moves
off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This should provide another nice day
across the region with plenty of sunshine and slightly warmer
temperatures with rising heights. PWATs remain low around 0.6-0.8
inches with northwesterly flow throughout the atmospheric column.
Temperatures should warm about a category with highs on Sunday
expected back in the lower 80s with lows Sunday night again in the
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A return to an active weather pattern returns by Tuesday with
ensembles suggesting a few shortwaves moving through the 500mb flow
next week. Dry weather is expected early Monday with some weak
shortwave ridging crossing the area but moisture increases Monday
afternoon with south to southwesterly flow developing and PWATs rise
above normal by 00z. Some isolated showers possible with daytime
heating and then increasing showers Monday night as shortwave energy
moves into the region with continued moisture advection.

PWATs rise to 150-170% of normal by Tuesday afternoon with
increasing southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching upper trough
and frontal boundary. The combination of moisture and instability
should support chances of thunderstorms and cannot rule out isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms although confidence this far out
remains limited in any severe threat. Expect a bit of a break on
Wednesday as the first shortwave passes to the east but ensemble
means show another shortwave moving into the region on Thursday with
varying differences in timing and amplitude but it should result in
additional rain chances across the forecast area.

Temperatures during this period are expected to be near normal early
in the week to above normal by mid week with highs in the 80s and
lows in the upper 50s to 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictions anticipated through the early morning before
returning to VFR.

High level cloud debris continues to spread over the area, but
it has bee thinning as it does. This should lead to low
ceilings; likely IFR at times. These low ceilings are somewhat
dependent on how long the high level clouds hang on. Fog is also
anticipated, but don`t expect fog to be dense due to elevated
low level winds. Again, the fog potential is dependent on the
high level cloudiness. Rain chances are low today, but there is
potential for some activity in the 12z-18z timeframe. West to
southwest winds are expected to pick up after around 18z,
gusting to 15-20 kts. A front passes through around 00z, causing
a wind shift to the northwest and remaining gusty for a few
hours before diminishing late in the TAF period.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are
possible Monday and Tuesday along with associated restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$