Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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603
FXUS61 KCTP 262346
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
746 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Humidity will continue to increase through the Memorial Day
holiday weekend. The humidity, along with a cold front dropping
southward, will keep ongoing chances for showers and thunderstorms
through Sunday night. Just isolated thunderstorms are possible
Monday into Tuesday, then the moisture from Subtropical Storm
Alberto will bring increasing chances for convection again from
midweek on.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Regional radar loop this evening showing scattered air mass
thunderstorms beneath subtropical ridge over the Mid Atlantic
and southeast conus, while a more organized area of convection
is noted over Ohio associated with an approaching shortwave.
While, pulse-type convection to the south should diminish after
sunset, expect batch of showers associated with shortwave to
overspread central Pa overnight.

Increasing cloud cover and dewpoints will result in a warm
night, with minimum temperatures expected to range from around
60F over the northwest mountains, to near 70F across the
southeast corner of the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Sunday will bring a warm and more humid day to most, with a back
door cold front working in from the NE. This along with cyclonic
upper flow will be enough to again generate showers and sct
tstms that will expand in coverage with afternoon heating. PWATs
on the order of +1 to 3 sigma will make any tstms potential
heavier rain producers - especially over the SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure ridge over New England with low pressure off Long
Island and a backdoor cold front through Central PA. Good chance
for showers Sunday Night with the frontal zone. Frontal zone
retreats east Monday leading to a drier day over all than Sunday
but still a slight chance for some pop-up showers or
thunderstorms. Drier into Tuesday with a strong ridge aloft
ahead of the remnants of Alberto and a strong dry Canadian high
pressure center dropping SE across New England and NY by Tuesday
night into Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, this high moves
far enough off the coast that deep southerly flow moves into
Central PA with PWats increasing to over 2 standard deviations.
Sub-tropical moisture and the remnant of Alberto will move in
for the latter part of the week with unsettled warm and humid
weather and a risk for heavy rain with any thunderstorms that
occur.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Convection currently across the southern tier that will bring
scattered restrictions in heavier downpours.

Convection tapers down early this evening, but shortwave sliding
in from the west will bring additional showers/sct tstms
overnight. As it interacts with a back door cold front dropping
down from the NE, cig restrictions will become likely toward
dawn.

On Sunday, cigs should recover back to VFR but lingering
intermittent restrictions will persist in disorganized yet
numerous showers/sct tstms. Ceilings lower Sunday night with
fairly widespread reductions.

Outlook...

Sun...Mainly VFR with numerous showers/sct thunderstorms.
Sun night...Widespread ceiling reductions.
Mon-Tue...VFR with isolated tstms poss.
Wed-Thu...Generally VFR with local reductions in scattered
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
It has been a wet May across much of the region.

As of Midnight, Williamsport rainfall for the month
has been 7.05 inches. This is the 6th wettest May on
record, and we still have a few days to add to the total.
The wettest May was 1919 with 9.91 inches of rainfall.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte/RXR
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Watson/La Corte
AVIATION...Ross/RXR
CLIMATE...



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