076
FXUS64 KMOB 140510
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 135 PM
CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure both at the surface and in the upper levels of the
atmosphere will remain centered over the area through Tuesday. Light
northwesterly to northerly flow will advect slightly drier air aloft
and along with increased subsidence should support deep afternoon
mixing both Monday and Tuesday afternoon`s. This should allow for
lowering dewpoints and hotter temperatures during this period. High
temperatures will likely be a few degrees hotter early this week
with middle to upper 90s expected. Lows will remain warm as well
with increased humidity overnight. Due to deep mixing, heat indices
should remain between 100 and 105 degrees Monday afternoon and 102
to 107 degrees on Tuesday afternoon. We will need to keep a close
eye on dewpoints the next few days to ensure that heat advisory
conditions are not met, especially Tuesday. This potential will be
closely monitored over the next few days.

Otherwise, the higher concern for potential high impact weather will
come for the second half of the week. Latest ensemble guidance
continues to suggest that a developing surface low pressure off the
coast of South Carolina this evening should retrograde southwest and
west towards the east coast of Florida tomorrow and across the
Florida Peninsula Monday night through Tuesday morning. As this
feature emerges off the west coast of Florida into the northeast
Gulf conditions appear increasingly favorable for the development of
a tropical system. At this time, there still remains uncertainty
regarding how well the system can consolidate a low level center.
Depending upon its ability to organize, it will be possible for it
to develop. Once again, overall confidence in both development and
track remain low, but this is something to closely monitor over the
next few days as it could result in hazardous high impact weather in
our area if development and intensification occurs and it tracks
close enough to our area. Regardless, it appears that increasing
winds and dangerous rip current conditions appear more likely for
the middle to end of the week if nothing else than a tightened
pressure gradient. Continue to monitor the latest forecast and we
will continue to provide additional updates. /JLH

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  94  75  96  75  94  73  89 /  10  30   0  40  20  70
 50  90 Pensacola   77  94  79  96  78  92  76  88 /  10  30  10  40
 40  80  60  90 Destin      79  94  81  95  79  91  79  89 /  10  30
 10  50  50  80  60  90 Evergreen   72  96  74  97  74  95  73  90 /
 20  20  10  30  20  60  30  80 Waynesboro  72  96  72  96  74  96
72  91 /  10  30   0  20  10  50  20  70 Camden      73  94  74  96
74  94  73  90 /  10  20   0  20  20  50  20  80 Crestview   73  97
75  97  74  94  73  89 /  10  30  10  60  20  80  40  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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