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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 250528
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
128 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface high pressure provides dry weather conditions and a
warming trend through the end of the week. Chance for showers
arrive late Friday into Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1030 PM Wednesday...

Freshened up temperatures and sky conditions for this evening.
Satellite trends show mainly clear skies outside of a stratus
deck draping down from the north, that will attach itself to the
northern half of the CWA as the night wears on. Also beginning
to see llvl stratus developing along the mountains as
anticipated. Cloud coverage may play a role in keeping
temperatures slightly warmer than anticipated tonight, but with
the possibility of frost in the event of overnight clearing,
will maintain the frost advisory the way it is with this update.

As of 545 PM Wednesday...

Opted to expand the Frost Advisory to incorporate all of our
southeast Ohio counties and into Wood County, WV for tonight
into tomorrow morning.

As of 245 PM Wednesday...

Key Points:
 * Frost likely tonight in portions of Southeast Ohio.

Widespread mid-level cumulus across the region this afternoon
should decrease in coverage this evening and overnight as we
lose diurnal heating. Calming winds should combine with the
clear skies to allow for frost development in our most
northwestern counties, and a Frost Advisory has been posted for
several of these counties, in decent alignment with neighbors. A
few pockets of Perry County may drop below freezing, and some
surrounding counties could have isolated pockets of frost, as
well.

Otherwise, there may be some fog formation overnight, mainly in
the mountains and high valleys, in addition to some potential
low stratus. In general, the below normal temperatures will
continue through the near-term, with lows mostly in the 30s.
Highs on Thursday will be in the 60s for most, about 10 degrees
below normal, with 50s in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1129 AM Wednesday...

A warm front will lift north of the region Friday with winds
shifting out of the south in the afternoon. This will mark the
return of warmth across the region with temperatures making it
back into the middle 70s across the lowlands by the afternoon.
Most should remain dry, but a spotty shower cannot be ruled out,
mainly across northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio, closer to
the warm front. An upper-level ridge will also build over the
middle Ohio Valley, reinforcing the warmer pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1131 AM Wednesday...

A large upper-level ridge will reside over the eastern 1/3 of the
country this weekend and into early next week with surface high
pressure over the Atlantic, which will pump warm and humid air
northward into our region. This weekend will certainly feel
summerlike with highs climbing into the mid-80s by Sunday across the
lowlands. Near-record temperatures will be possible Monday at
Parkersburg and Elkins, where the records currently sit at 86
(1991) and 87 (1996), respectively.

Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances will return late Monday
and into Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west. At this
time, there are no alarming signs of severe weather for the
long-term period. Things could change, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 126 AM Thursday...

Satellite imagery and METARs show areas of low stratus affecting
PKB, CKB and and EKN with MVFR ceilings. Expect these clouds to
dig south, diminishing in coverage across the west, and
persisting along the eastern mountains, perhaps reaching BKW
during the predawn hours. Rest of sites should experience VFR
conditions under light northerly flow.

Afternoon mixing could lead to some wind gusts up to 18 knots,
before subsiding around sunset. Guidance suggests skies will
gradually clear this afternoon continuing with widespread VFR
conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of low stratus may vary
from forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             THU 04/25/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    M    L    M    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
Patchy IFR possible along the mountains Friday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ009.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...None.
VA...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...FK/MEK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ