Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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438 FXUS65 KABQ 091750 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1150 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 246 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024 Very dry and windy conditions give way to higher moisture across eastern NM today and through the weekend. Showers begin to spread over the northern mountains late today, spreading to more of central and eastern NM Friday and Saturday. The backdoor front responsible for this surges through the gaps of the central mountain chain tonight and through Friday night with high winds possible through the Tijeras Canyon into the ABQ metro area. Some of this moisture will reach the Continental Divide Friday before being pushed back toward TX by Sunday. Winter weather will also be possible over the northern mountains during this time where several inches of fresh and likely wet snow is possible. Conditions turn warmer and drier most areas Sunday, but precipitation chances don`t entirely go away across northern and central NM next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 246 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024 A broad area of upper level low pressure will consolidate into a 565dm H5 low over southeast UT today. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front moving southwest across eastern NM will bring a period of gusty northeast winds and increasing dewpoints today. Canyon winds may develop in the RGV around sunrise today with a couple hours of breezy to locally windy conditions from Santa Fe to ABQ. Stronger west/southwest flow aloft in the base of the aforementioned upper level trough will allow central and western NM to become breezy this afternoon with humidity values near 10% again. Lift associated with the upper level speed max will interact with a resurgence of moist, low level return flow by late afternoon to develop a few showers along the Sangre de Cristo Mts and northeast NM. Areas of low clouds are also expected to develop across the northeast in the wake of wind shift by late day. Much stronger canyon winds are expected in the RGV with gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible from near Santa Fe to ABQ. Forecast confidence was not high enough to upgrade the High Wind Watch given 80% of the HREF members have gusts peaking below 58 mph and MET/MAV guidance has been trending weaker the past few runs. A moderate density/pressure gradient is still likely with deep layer east-southeast flow across the Sandia Mts but the stability profile in cross-sections is not most ideal for maximum downward momentum flux. The day shift will have another opportunity to monitor trends in guidance so the High Wind Watch has been continued. Precip coverage is likely to expand across the northern mts tonight with moist, low level southeast flow working with orographics and large-scale ascent with the upper level speed max. Temps will be cold enough to support snow above 9,000 ft. Folks with recreation plans in the Sangre de Cristo Mts should plan for a few to several inches of snow in the back country Friday and Friday night. Eastern NM will be socked in with low clouds for much of the day with temps up to 15F below normal. Additional areas of light rain and/or rain showers with isolated thunder may develop along the east slopes of the central mt chain by late Friday afternoon where instability is just sufficient to initiate convection. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 246 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024 The long term begins with the leading edge of a backdoor front already having pushed to the Continental Divide and underlying southwest flow aloft ahead of an 568dm H5 low over Las Vegas, NV. There will be one more reinforcing surge of this backdoor push Friday night into Saturday morning producing continued strong east canyon winds through the gaps of the central mountain chain. These east canyon winds won`t be as strong as they are forecast for Friday morning however, gusting 35 to 40 mph. Continued showers and convective activity along the leading edge of the backdoor front looks to continued through Friday night as well, with lesser chances further east toward TX given more stable conditions. This changes Saturday afternoon however as richer Gulf moisture begins to advect northward into eastern NM. Td`s rise into the low 50s across the eastern plains while the moisture gradient becomes sharper getting pushed back east to the central mountain chain. Overall forecast confidence for afternoon thunderstorm activity across eastern NM has come down with this forecast package given a lowering of surface temperatures across the eastern plains with highs now in the 60s. The NAM12 is by far the most stable across the eastern plains with a forecast sounding at Clovis showing a stout mid-level capping inversion, whereas the GFS is less capped. Brought down the chance for thunderstorms across eastern NM as a result, but still left a slight chance mention there given the uncertainty. While showers are likely across the eastern half of the state, the more robust convective thunderstorm potential will exist along the western edge of the moisture gradient along the central mountain chain. The H5 low tracks east through the Four Corners area Saturday night with southwesterly flow aloft overrunning moisture across eastern NM generating continued showers and a few storms overnight. Drier westerlies fill in behind the Pacific front shunting the Gulf moisture back into TX by Sunday afternoon. Remnant showers will persist over the northern mountains and northeastern plains on the backside of the upper low. Temperatures trend warmer heading into next week. Numerical model solutions are also generating a round of afternoon showers Monday from enough mid-level moisture left over the state. These showers may end up being high based with little wetting footprints however. Thereafter, ensemble guidance is favoring a more amplified upper level pattern over the western CONUS with backdoor frontal intrusions into eastern NM being favored by around 40% of the solutions. Less likely solutions hold a less amplified pattern with a cutoff low slowly crossing NM next week generating some light precipitation. Either way, next week will have its fair chance at more precipitation across NM. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024 A backdoor front continues to bring impacts to aviation through the TAF period. Brisk ely winds currently at KABQ will taper and turn sly towards the aftn. Moist upslope flow will give rise to shwrs and tstms along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts aft 09/20Z, spreading to nern NM toward the evening hours. MVFR with lcl IFR cigs are expected to develop overnight along the east slopes with some potential for brief MVFR cigs at KSAF. A more robust ely canyon wind will take shape aft 10/03Z across the central Rio Grande Valley, including KABQ, where gusts of 40 to 50 kts will be possible overnight and into tomorrow morning. Sely gusts of 30 to 40 kts will also be possible in and around KSAF during this time period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 246 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024 A pattern shift toward cooler temps with higher precip chances will begin today with deeper moisture returning to central and eastern NM. Western NM will still see localized areas of marginally critical fire weather thru Saturday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall chances are increasing along and east of the central mt chain thru Sunday. Temps will be cold enough to support a few inches of snow above 9,000 feet tonight and Friday in the Sangre de Cristo Mts. Precip amounts of 0.25" to 0.75" are expected for a broad area of northeast NM with localized amounts over 1" possible thru Sunday. Cool and unsettled weather with afternoon showers may stick around for northern and eastern NM thru Tuesday before warming temps with lower humidity return areawide by the middle of next week. Vent rates will trend poor to fair across eastern NM thru the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 68 41 71 44 / 5 10 20 20 Dulce........................... 64 31 64 32 / 30 60 70 40 Cuba............................ 65 37 64 39 / 10 20 30 20 Gallup.......................... 67 29 70 32 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 64 32 67 37 / 0 0 5 5 Grants.......................... 69 31 71 34 / 0 0 10 5 Quemado......................... 69 33 71 36 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 72 41 73 45 / 0 0 5 20 Datil........................... 67 36 70 40 / 0 0 0 10 Reserve......................... 73 31 75 34 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 78 45 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 58 31 57 32 / 50 70 80 50 Los Alamos...................... 65 42 60 43 / 30 40 40 30 Pecos........................... 62 40 57 41 / 30 40 30 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 38 54 40 / 60 80 60 50 Red River....................... 50 30 49 32 / 70 90 70 50 Angel Fire...................... 51 28 48 30 / 50 90 50 50 Taos............................ 62 33 60 34 / 50 70 50 40 Mora............................ 57 33 52 37 / 30 80 50 40 Espanola........................ 72 41 69 42 / 20 50 30 30 Santa Fe........................ 65 43 62 45 / 20 50 30 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 69 44 65 45 / 10 30 20 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 74 49 70 50 / 10 10 20 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 75 47 73 49 / 5 10 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 77 46 75 48 / 0 5 10 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 75 47 73 48 / 5 10 10 20 Belen........................... 79 41 78 45 / 0 0 10 20 Bernalillo...................... 76 48 73 49 / 5 10 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 78 43 76 45 / 0 5 10 20 Corrales........................ 77 47 74 48 / 5 10 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 78 43 77 45 / 0 5 10 20 Placitas........................ 72 46 67 47 / 10 20 10 30 Rio Rancho...................... 76 47 72 48 / 5 10 10 20 Socorro......................... 82 46 82 49 / 0 0 5 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 66 41 60 44 / 10 20 20 30 Tijeras......................... 71 42 65 45 / 10 20 20 30 Edgewood........................ 70 39 64 42 / 10 20 20 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 71 38 65 41 / 10 10 10 30 Clines Corners.................. 64 38 58 40 / 10 20 10 40 Mountainair..................... 70 39 68 42 / 5 10 10 30 Gran Quivira.................... 71 39 70 43 / 0 10 10 30 Carrizozo....................... 77 46 76 51 / 0 5 5 20 Ruidoso......................... 69 41 67 46 / 0 5 10 30 Capulin......................... 56 36 53 38 / 30 80 40 30 Raton........................... 59 36 55 39 / 40 90 50 30 Springer........................ 62 39 57 42 / 30 80 40 30 Las Vegas....................... 61 38 55 40 / 30 70 30 50 Clayton......................... 64 44 62 45 / 10 40 20 20 Roy............................. 64 43 60 45 / 20 60 30 40 Conchas......................... 73 49 67 50 / 20 50 20 40 Santa Rosa...................... 71 45 65 47 / 20 40 10 40 Tucumcari....................... 73 45 69 47 / 20 30 10 30 Clovis.......................... 77 47 72 50 / 10 10 5 30 Portales........................ 78 47 73 50 / 5 10 5 30 Fort Sumner..................... 77 47 70 50 / 20 20 10 30 Roswell......................... 86 55 76 57 / 0 5 5 40 Picacho......................... 79 46 70 50 / 0 5 10 30 Elk............................. 79 43 71 47 / 0 0 5 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from 7 PM MDT this evening through Friday morning for NMZ219. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...12