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000
FXUS63 KIWX 260701
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
300 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much warmer temperatures this weekend with highs around 80.

- Periodic chances for rain and a few storms, particularly tonight
  and Monday.

- The risk of severe weather is low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Dramatic warmup to summerlike conditions this period as heights
build across the ern US downstream of deep wrn troughing. Lead arc
of storms through ern KS/far wrn MO will fester newd into wrn zones
by late aftn yet expected to decay with ewd extent as they outrun
favorable low level moisture axis displaced west of here. That
calculus changes tonight as flow veers swrly and ramps to
50kts at H85 as more substantial theta-e ridge overspreads the area.
Most cams develop at least sct storms which may linger into Sat
morning before dissipating as LLJ weakens. Rest of the weekend looks
mainly dry outside some low end potential for storms within low
level confluence zone nw half late Sat aftn-early evening,
commensurate with general decent instability axis that most models
develop and basis for the DY2 marginal severe risk.

Thereafter deep swrn US parent low lifts bodily out through the
upper midwest Mon and orphans its sfc frontal zone ahead of next sys
progressing quickly ewd into the nrn Rockies. This sys will spread
frontal based rains to the area later Tue followed by yet another
more vigorous/developed sys through the upper midwest late Thu.
Temps generally well above normal but do look to cool down again by
DY8 (FRI).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions will dominate through 21z thanks to high
pressure. Ceilings quickly drop as clouds move in ahead of our
next weather system. A warm front will begin to surge north
late in afternoon, with some indications of rain trying to take
shape near after 00Z Saturday especially at KSBN. A few
embedded thunderstorms are possible too. The timing of the rain
may need to be adjusted later as some models have drier air
creeping in later in the period. Any showers that develop before
00Z Saturday are unlikely to reach the surface. In addition,
winds will become increasing gusty during the afternoon/evening
today, with gusts up to 25-30 knots possible in the 00-06Z
Saturday timeframe.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ005>009-017-
     018-025>027-116-216.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ078>081.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Johnson