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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 151143
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
743 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief bout of dry weather is expected today before rain
chances return on Tuesday with moderating temperatures into next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- The last of the showers/storms exit by dawn.
- Dry weather returns Monday with moderating temperatures.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

A few showers and a thunderstorm or two are tracking across SW
PA this morning. These will continue to pop up and move
southeast. Even at this hour, there are still some weak
developing upstream into OH. These remain light but will need
monitored through dawn.

With the progression of the upper trough into today, confidence
is high that the cold front will clear the area by mid-morning.
Aside from some low probability shower chances south of I-70,
the day should otherwise be dry. Ensembles aren`t very bullish
on a notable push of colder air in the wake of the front as an
850 mb ridge quickly builds counteracting weak cold advection in
residual northwest flow; most of the day should feature a
rather sunny sky with increasing subsidence drying out the
boundary layer and temperatures are expected to remain above
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances return for the latter half of Tuesday and
  continue through Thursday.
- Temperatures remain above average.
- Rain chances continue into mid-week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Brief upper ridging slides overhead on Tuesday reinforcing the
dry weather for the first half of the day, but clouds increase
from the southwest with increasing moisture aloft ahead of an
approaching shortwave traversing and flattening the ridge and
reintroducing showers for the second half of the day. We should
see a brief break overnight Tuesday night before trailing low
pressure arrives. Amounts with this batch look light with even
NBM 90th percentile values only near 0.1-0.2" through Wednesday
morning.

Above normal temperatures and rain chances continue to be the theme
into mid-week as southerly return flow promotes warm advection
kicking highs above average with ensemble probability for >70F in
excess of 70% through Thursday.

What`s left of the ridging breaks down into Wednesday as an upper
trough and surface low pressure dig across the Midwest with
diffluent flow aloft - Temperatures remain above average. Rain
chances continue into mid-week promoting broad ascent. Primary
ensemble uncertainty stems from the progression of the trough
and surface low, but consensus tracks it through the Great Lakes
to our north as it occludes and returns rain to our region by
Tuesday with a leading shortwave passing through. Rain chances
continue into Thursday as the warm front approaches with the
cold front following behind as early as Wednesday night or more
likely more toward early Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Temperatures return closer to normal by the end of the week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

We`ll dry out briefly behind the front, but ensembles push a
secondary reinforcing trough through by late week which then
favors temperatures dipping back down towards normal to close
out the week and low confidence rain chances as early as Friday
morning, but more likely into Friday afternoon and evening.
Still early to talk rainfall totals, but ensemble spread sits
from 0.2" on the reasonable low end to near 1" on the high end
through Friday.

The Saturday and Sunday timeframe will still feature a lagging
boundary over the Appalachian Range. Along this, expect a
surface low to develop with precipitation possible once again
along it and through the Upper OH Valley on Saturday. Confidence
decreases for the potential into Sunday so just left the slight
chance pops suggested by the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Patchy valley fog is ongoing across the northern half of the
area this morning, where the heaviest rain fell yesterday
evening. Visibilities are already beginning to improve, however,
with DUJ/FKL back up to 6SM or better in their latest obs.
Thus, not expecting much impact in the 12Z TAF period. VFR
conditions prevail at all TAF sites throughout the day, with the
exception of possible restrictions associated with isolated
showers and thunderstorms south of I-68 (noted in the MGW TAF).

VFR conditions and light winds prevail overnight tonight.
Ensemble guidance suggests a low probability (less than 30%) for
patchy fog along and south of I-68 and in the higher terrain to
the east after 09Z Tuesday, but with such low chances, opted to
keep restrictions out of the TAFs at this time.


.Outlook...
VFR will persist until restriction potential returns late
Tuesday and Wednesday with approaching low pressure.
Restrictions are possible into Thursday under a subsequent upper
trough.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...MLB/Shallenberger
AVIATION...Cermak