000
FXUS61 KRNK 262355
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
755 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A wedge of high pressure will keep clouds and occasional rain
showers or drizzle in the area through Saturday. Dry conditions
and very warm temperatures return for the end of the weekend and
remain into much of next week. Chances for rain increase by the
middle of next week with a frontal passage. Additional
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly in
the afternoon hours each day for the remainder of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 600 PM EDT Friday...

The afternoon forecast package is in good shape, however the
latest forecast update reflects recent temperature and cloud
cover trends heading into the evening. Satellite imagery
indicates mid and high clouds building in from the west overtop
the stratocu that`s covering much of our area this evening.
Expect the clouds to thicken overnight as a marine air continues
to flow across our area from the southeast.

As of 150 PM EDT Friday...

High pressure continues to wedge south along the eastern side of
the Appalachians. Surface obs still indicating an easterly flow
and visible satellite still showing stratus layer over much of
the area. Daytime heating has helped to erode the cloud cover,
but expecting the clouds to increase again tonight after losing
daytime heating. Some light rain and drizzle may develop
overnight, and perhaps some areas of fog in the North Carolina
mountains and along the southern Blue Ridge in Virginia.

Any showery activity is expected to diminish a few hours after
daybreak and clouds will begin to erode throughout the day. High
pressure moves into a less favorable position, therefore
expecting a quicker erosion of the low stratus deck. Should see
temperatures a few degrees warmer tomorrow in response to the
weaker easterly flow and quicker cloud erosion.

Temperatures tonight into the mid/upper 40s to low 50s. High
tomorrow mid/upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...


Still expecting some residual cloud cover from cool easterly
flow through Saturday night. High pressure moves south, centered
off the DelMarVa by Sunday morning.

Upper ridging quickly builds over the Southeast on Sunday as
high pressure continues to move south. Southwest flow will
increase and warm air will advect into the region. Dry and
mostly sunny conditions are expected for Sunday with
temperatures into the upper 70s/low 80s.

Ridging continues through Monday night and warm air advection
increases as a front to the west moves close to the region.
850mb temperatures reach +14C to +17C and under sunny skies
should translate to widespread 80s to perhaps even some upper
80s, nearing the low 90s by Monday afternoon in the Roanoke
Valley and Piedmont areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Friday...


Key Messages:
1. Very warm temperatures continue through midweek.
2. Shower and thunderstorm chances for Tuesday, and continue through
the week.

Upper level ridging will start to slide eastward Tuesday, but still
keep positive height anomalies over the eastern US, and thus warmer
than normal temperatures through at least Wednesday. A cold front
approaches the region Tuesday, looking to first reach the mountains
by Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms may accompany this
front Tuesday afternoon and evening. Southwesterly flow ahead of
this front will draw moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward into
the Midwest and Mid Atlantic, and diurnal heating will help increase
atmospheric instability, although that may be limited by increasing
cloud cover ahead of the front. That front crosses the area quickly,
and should be to the east by Wednesday.

Through the beginning of the week, another low pressure system
develops in the north central Plains, and tracks eastward into the
Great Lakes region by midweek, with a trailing cold front extending
towards the southeastern states. Some showers and thunderstorms are
also possible from the passage of this front, however, the upper
level forcing does not look to be as strong as the prior front on
Tuesday. Deterministic long range guidance shows differences in the
timing and evolution of this front, and thus its impacts to the
area. This front does look to bring some relief from the heat, as
winds behind it turn mostly northwesterly, bringing some cooler air
down from the north.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Friday...

Starting the evening off with continued easterly windflow that
is carrying a layer of marine air off the Atlantic, supporting
widespread stratocu. Bases of this deck are mainly VFR, in the
4kft to 8kft range, though the upslope windflow along the crest
of the Blue Ridge from the VA/NC state line through TNB are
supporting low-MVFR to IFR ceilings in this area.

Stratus deck with low MVFR to IFR bases will redevelop tonight
toward the 05Z to 08Z time range. Can also expect spotty showers
to develop as rain associated a warm front lifting northward
west of the Appalachian Chain spills over the mountains. Most
shower activity, mainly spotty in coverage, will occur north of
Highway 460 through early afternoon before exiting the region.
Winds will shift more southerly by 18Z as well, helping low
clouds to scatter and lift, making for generally BKN to OVC,
mostly VFR ceilings through the remainder of the day.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Mixed MVFR/VFR conditions likely to continue into Saturday
night, with improving ceilings by Sunday.

Sunday and Monday should be mainly VFR. Winds turn more
southerly Saturday through Monday. Tuesday will see a cold front
approach the area with non-VFR weather possible in -TSRA
areawide.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/NF
NEAR TERM...BMG/NF
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG/NF