000
FXUS61 KRNK 252319
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
719 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A wedge of high pressure builds in by early Friday morning,
bringing clouds, lower temperatures, and a low chance for
drizzle in the mountains through Saturday. Sunday into the
beginning of next week look especially warm, with shower chances
returning Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 PM EDT Thursday...

While we are still expecting a trend towards increasing low
clouds and patchy drizzle developing overnight for sections of
the region, our the onset of the clouds and drizzle now look to
be about two or three hours slower than our previous forecast
advertised. Currently, clear to mostly clear skies prevail
across the region. A healthy onshore flow is noted in the
surface observations across eastern VA/NC. These should advect
moisture under a developing nocturnal inversion that will
develop after sunset, pool moisture along the lee of the
Appalachians, helping to develop the clouds/drizzle, starting
around 10pm. Have made minor tweaks to adjust hourly
temperature, dew point, sky cover, and wind speed/gusts to
better match the current observations and expected trends
through the evening.

As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Dry and mostly sunny today and should remain that way through
the evening hours. High pressure building in from the north will
wedge into the region and bring a marine layer of clouds and
some drizzle tonight.

East winds and cool air wedging will continue into Friday
keeping clouds in place throughout much of the day, especially
for locations along and east of the Blue Ridge. Clouds, some
drizzle and easterly flow will keep high temperatures on the
cooler side with 50s in the mountains and 60s in the lower
elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Cloudy and cooler on Friday with light rain possible

2) Drying out Saturday with warming temperatures.

Weak warm advection aloft associated with a warm front lifting
through the Tennessee Valley will result in increasing cloud cover
through daybreak Friday. As surface winds take on an increasingly
easterly component, low level saturation will allow for some areas
of drizzle to start the day. This will likely continue into the
early afternoon hours before BL mixing introduces enough dry air to
dry things out by mid day. However as the aforementioned warm front
moves into the Ohio Valley by Friday evening, weak isentropic ascent
will increase and light rain should return through the overnight
hours into early Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts will be light
and should end from south to north by late Saturday morning.

Temperatures on Friday will struggle a bit given cloud cover and
drizzle, with highs ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Lows
Friday night will fall into the mid 40s to lower 50s. As the warm
front lifts north on Saturday, clouds will slowly decrease and temps
will rise about 8-10 degrees with highs ranging from the upper 50s
to lower 70s. Lows Saturday night will fall into the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Warmup continues through Tuesday

2) Showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front Tuesday
afternoon/evening

Sunday will see a strengthening ridge aloft with 580-582dm 500mb
heights overspreading the area. This will translate to increasing
temps and decreasing cloud cover across the area. Temps will warm
well above normal for late April with highs Sunday in the upper 70s
to lower 80s, with a further 5-8 degrees of warming expected on
Monday. This is all ahead of an approaching cold front which should
move through the area on Tuesday. Increasing southwesterly winds
ahead of the front will keep temps in the mid 80s through Tuesday
afternoon and with FROPA not likely until late afternoon/early
evening, there should be plenty of time for the BL to destabilize.
MLCAPES look to approach 500-1000 J/KG across the area ahead of the
front and I maintained the mention of thunderstorms in the forecast.

The period of Wednesday and Thursday looks to be active as the flow
aloft takes on a more zonal component and a series of fast moving
embedded shortwave troughs move through the flow. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible both Wednesday and Thursday with
continued temperatures in the low to mid 80s both days.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 712 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions continue to prevail across the area. That will
start to change from east to east starting between 03-05Z. A
persistent easterly fetch of low level moisture will advect
from the Atlantic, under what will be developing nocturnal
inversion. The result will be lowering of ceilings to IFR/MVFR
range for most of the area which will continue into and through
the day Friday. Patchy drizzle will also be possible especially
in areas near the escarpment of the Blue Ridge.

Average confidence in the aviation forecast.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Non-VFR weather likely to continue Friday night through Saturday
morning as a warm front lifts through the area. Conditions will
improve by Sunday.  On Monday we should see improvement to VFR.
Winds turn more southerly Sunday and Monday. Tuesday will see a cold
front approach the area with non-VFR weather possible area-wide.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/DS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DS