716
FXUS61 KRNK 160111
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
911 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure centered over the central Appalachians will slowly
move east and off the coast Thursday. Another storm system will
cross the area Saturday. Both storm systems will produce
wetting showers and scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 900 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken, though
pockets of light rain will linger into early Thursday morning.

2) Partial clearing tomorrow afternoon.

Coverage and intensity of shower activity continues to diminish
this evening with the loss of daytime heating, though still the
occasional rumble of thunder. Rapid update weather forecast
models suggest that shower activity will linger well into the
early morning hours of Thursday before finally coming to an end.
Given the moist air in place, low clouds and patchy fog will be
widespread after midnight. Temperatures tonight will remain
mild, generally in the mid 50s to the low 60s.

Clouds will linger through tomorrow morning before bonafide
clearing takes place in the wake of departing low pressure
during the afternoon. Winds are expected to shift from the
north-northwest, so would anticipate some downslope drying,
although model soundings suggest high based cumulus to persist
through the afternoon. Will also maintain a slight chance for a
showers, instability limited due to increasing dry air
aloft...high temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Rain and thunderstorm chances return for the end of the week.

Friday likely start off dry under the influence of weak ridging over
the southeast. To the west, an open wave amplifies as it moves east
into the lower Ohio Valley. A warm front will lift north through the
area on Friday. Flow behind the warm front will become
southwesterly, with ample moisture advecting north in advance of
the approaching upper wave.

Skies are likely to remain mostly cloudy throughout Friday, but
could have some breaks in the clouds allowing for some surface
heating. Modest surface heating and dewpoints in the low 60s should
allow for enough instability for widely scattered thunderstorms by
Friday afternoon. Shear is limited so not expecting any organized
convection, thus pulse/multicellular storm modes seem probable.

By Saturday, upper wave is just to the west, nearly overhead.
Another repeat of Friday seems to be the most likely scenario, with
perhaps wider coverage of rain/storms. Wave begins to push east and
precipitation very gradually tapers off through Saturday night.

Highs generally around normal, featuring highs in the upper 60s to
mid 70s both days. Overnights remain mild low 60s/ upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Lower threat for storms.

2) Warming temperatures through the middle of next week.

Some uncertainty begins on Sunday with the departure of the upper
wave pushing through the region. Some guidance supports the idea of
a closed low lingering within the region through Monday. If this is
indeed the outcome, would likely have clouds and rain showers
lingering through at least Monday night. Confidence on this occuring
at this point is rather low and went more with a blend of guidance,
keeping a chance of showers/isolated storms in the afternoon through
at least Monday.

Some signs of drying returns by mid-week as upper ridging tries to
build eastward. Ridging may be short lived as a front moving across
the Great Plains approaches the area by the middle of next week.

Temperatures gradually warm from near to just below normal to above
normal towards the latter portion of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

Keeping an eye on radar: intensity of shower/thunderstorm
activity is diminishing, though still widespread coverage of
light/moderate rainfall across the mountains and foothills that
is reducing visibility to the 1SM to 4SM range. Expect this
activity to fade through midnight, with isolated showers
thereafter. Given the moist air in place, expect widespread IFR
overnight in the form of both low ceilings and patchy fog.

Weak high pressure will build in overnight, resulting in a light
northwesterly wind shift toward dawn. IFR conditions will burn
off/lift during the 14Z to 18Z timeframe, resulting in mostly
VFR conditions by early afternoon. May see a few showers and
storms develop with late afternoon heating as weak waves of low
pressure pass overhead, though confidence is low on where, or
even if, this activity will develop.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Friday: Deteriorating conditions. Flight restrictions possible
by afternoon due to low CIGs with an increasing coverage of
SHRA/TSRA.

Friday night and Saturday: Flight restrictions expected due to
low CIGs/VSBYs in SHRA/TSRA.

Sunday: Some restrictions possible, especially early, with a
decreasing coverage of SHRA/TSRA.

Monday: Mainly dry. Isolated shra/tsra possible over the
mountains.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NF/PM
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...BMG
AVIATION...NF/PM