Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 121725

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1225 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Issued at 216 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

While a low level stratus deck was shifting south of the area,
additional stratus across Northern Missouri and Kansas was moving
back south towards the area. Where skies had cleared, temps had
fallen into the lower 30s with continued northerly winds. An
upper level low was moving east across Tennessee and surface high
pressure was building south over South Dakota.

Main forecast emphasis and challenges will be with the late week
storm systems and their effects on our precip chances and


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Low level stratus deck will build into the area this morning and
linger through at least midday and perhaps into the afternoon
hours across the Eastern Ozarks. With continued northwest winds,
this will have effects on our high temps and have gone on the
cool side of guidance with most locations staying in the lower to
middle 40s. Warmest readings will occur across SE KS and far SW
MO and coolest readings across the Eastern Ozarks.

There are some indications that mid to high level clouds will
approach from the northwest tonight as a shortwave swings
through. This may keep overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Tuesday through Thursday:

A piece of energy across the Great Lakes will pivot south on
Tuesday and slide just east of the area. 850mb temps drop during
the day Tuesday therefore temps even with sun may struggle to warm
out of the 40s in most locations. Surface high pressure will
settle overhead Tuesday night and this appears to be the coldest
night with overnight lows in the lower 20s. Would not be surprised
to see some teens in the valleys and typically colder/sheltered
areas of the Ozarks.

Wednesday looks like a recovery day as high pressure moves
southeast of the area and heights/thickness values rise. Highs
will be closer to average with readings in the 50s. Mid level
ridge builds in on Thursday with low pressure developing across
the Rockies. Southerly winds and increasing 850mb temps will allow
for highs to soar through the 60s on Thursday.

An elevated fire weather risk will occur Tuesday through Thursday
across the area given a dry airmass moving through and winds
around 10-20 mph at times.

Friday through Sunday:

An unsettled weather pattern begins as early as Friday as
shortwave energy moves in from the west/southwest just about
every day. Pinpointing exactly when the highest rain chances is a
challenge at this range however there is a signal that at least
Friday and Sunday will feature modest rain/thunder chances with
areas of low pressure developing to our west and moving north of
the area. Winds look to increase as well with some wind gusts up
to 30mph possible Friday. Temperatures will generally be tied to
precip chances/cloud cover however the signal is there for highs
around 70 if not higher. Currently no strong signal/high
predictability for heavy rainfall or severe weather during this
time frame.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

MVFR ceilings...with some IFR ceilings over central
Missouri...continue across the area. Surface high pressure
continued to build into the Central Plains.

Lower clouds are expected lift through the afternoon with VFR
ceilings expected by 00z. Once clouds move out...expect mostly
clear skies and north to northwest wind generally less than 10
knots through the remainder of the period as high pressure
dominates the weather across the region.




SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Gaede is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.