Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 240456
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1156 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

...Update to Aviation Discussion for 06Z Tafs...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Weak frontal boundary currently situated from west-central to
southeast MO with a very moist air mass in place. Upper level
trough over OK/TX had set off showers and thunderstorms over AR
late this morning which have now spread into MO.

Given the shear and instability profiles...would expect more pulse
type thunderstorms with marginal severe hail and winds possible.
However...given the weak steering winds aloft and the above normal
PWATs for this time of year...will need to monitor storms this
evening for slow movement and possible heavy rainfall.

Surface front continues to meander across the area on Thursday
before washing out by Thursday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

As an upper level wave moves across Southern Canada Thursday into
Friday...it will tend to flatten the ridge and allow it to
retrograde westward. This will put the area into more of a northwest
flow pattern and in fact the models are hinting at an MCS
developing over eastern NE and moving into the area early on
Friday morning.

Temperatures through the period should range from the mid 60s to
lower 70s overnight to mid 80s to lower 90s for daytime highs.
With the muggy air mass over the region...heat index
values...especially along the I-49 corridor could reach into the
mid 90s over the holiday weekend.

The next system to watch for will be a tropical low moving
northward into the Gulf of Mexico...which could affect the area
late in the period if it decides to take a more westward turn.
For now...will keep daily chances of diurnal storms in until the
movement of this system becomes more apparent.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Light southeasterly winds will occur overnight. Light fog will be
possible early Thursday morning, with the best chances across far
southern Missouri.

A few showers and maybe a rumble of thunder or two may develop
and spread into far southern Missouri early Thursday morning.
Coverage will be limited if this develops. Additional isolated storms
are expected to develop Thursday afternoon with the activity
dissipating quickly as the sun begins to set.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Wise


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