Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 132026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
326 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Surface high pressure will slowly build into the region from the
northwest tonight resulting in clear skies and light winds. With
ideal radiational cooling conditions in place, we have gone on the
cool side of guidance with lows expected to fall into the lower to
middle 20s.

That surface high will move south of the region on Wednesday
resulting in increasing southwest winds and the start of a warming
trend. Highs should be a solid ten degrees warmer than what we saw
today with highs ranging from the middle 50s to around 60 degrees.

The increasing southwest winds along with a dry low level air mass
will lead to elevated fire weather conditions across much of the
area Wednesday afternoon. Areas out in southeastern Kansas may
approach Red Flag criteria, especially if winds are a bit stronger
than expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Warm air advection will continue on Thursday as an upper level
ridge axis slides overhead. With 850 mb temperatures warming into
the 6 to 9 degree Celsius range, a local conditional climatology
study supports highs warming into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

That ridge axis will then quickly slide east of the area Thursday
night as strong upper level energy becomes negatively tilted and
swings northeast into the central Plains. Low level isentropic
upglide beneath a strongly diffluent flow aloft should lead to
increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

By Friday morning, a vertically stacked low pressure system will
be located over northwestern Kansas. Ongoing showers and
thunderstorms are expected in the morning across the Missouri
Ozarks as deep tropospheric ascent persists.

The question then becomes how unstable the atmosphere can become
behind morning convection as mid to perhaps upper 50s dew points
advect north in a thin ribbon beneath mid-level cooling. Deep
layer and low level shear look fairly impressive with this system

While moisture quality and instability are still in question
with this system, we do feel that there is at least a limited risk
for strong to severe storms over southern Missouri. We have gone
ahead and added that threat to the Hazardous Weather Outlook

That occluded system will then be slow to depart the region with
lingering wrap-around showers possible into Saturday. Another
system is then forecast by global models to slide east through the
area from Sunday night into Monday night or Tuesday. This will
give us another opportunity for showers and perhaps some

While we will see cooler temperatures return behind the weekend
system, we are still looking at readings fairly close to normal
early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

High pressure moving over the region today will remain in place
over the area through Wednesday. Generally light surface winds
will shift from northerly to southwesterly by sunrise, otherwise
no impacts to aviation concerns are expected.




SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Hatch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.