Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 161024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
524 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

A compact and potent negatively titled shortwave trough is moving
out into the Central Plains region this morning. A band of
scattered light showers have develop and arching across the area
this morning. This band will continue to slowly move eastward
during the morning hours and can`t rule out an isolated rumble of
thunder through the morning.

The Missouri Ozarks area will be "sandwiched" in between two
frontal boundaries today. A stalled warm front will be near
central Missouri draped down into southeast Missouri where
temperatures south of this boundary will be much warmer than
northeast of this boundary. A sharpening dry line will develop
across central Kansas and Oklahoma. This dry line will move
eastward this afternoon. A strong low pressure will move across
the Central U.S. today. Southerly winds will be gusty today
shifting to southwest late this afternoon.

High-res models show a ribbon of limited instability arching from
southeast to northwest across the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon
with surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 50s. Forecast
sounding data shows up to 800 J/KG CAPE values may be possible.
There is some indications of some low level CAPE up to 150 J/KG
trying to develop ahead of the dry line. Bulk shear values are
high between 50 and 60 knots along with strong helicity values up
to 400. Given those parameters, there may be an isolated tornado
threat this afternoon between 3 pm and 7 pm ahead of the dry line.
The potential is very low but not zero given the strong dynamics.
The main risk for any isolated severe storm will be hail up to
quarter size and wind gusts up to 55 mph. The entire system moves
out of the area by late this evening with cooler weather moving
in behind it.

Fire weather concerns will develop again this afternoon especially
for areas behind the dry line in extreme western Missouri and
eastern Kansas. Humidity values will drop to 25 percent or less
along with gusty southwest winds 20 to 35 mph. Some gusts up to 40
mph possible. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for I-49 and
westward this afternoon. This may need to be expanded if the dry
line surges further east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Saturday will be cooler with weak high pressure building in. The
next storm system will quickly be moving in late Sunday into
Monday. There will be another negatively tilted strong shortwave
trough kicking out across the Central U.S. Showers will become
likely spreading from southwest to northeast late Sunday into
Sunday night continuing into Monday. There could be enough
elevated instability for a few rumbles of thunder but nothing
severe is expected at this time. Temperatures will turn cooler on
the back side of this system for middle of next week followed by
dry weather for a few days.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Mainly VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours for TAF
sites. The only aviation concerns for pilots flying in the area
will be strong gusty south-southwest winds today up to 25 or 30
knots possible this afternoon. The other concern will be isolated
or widely scattered convection developing along a dryline boundary
for SGF and BBG late this afternoon between 21z and 24z. Otherwise
broken to overcast clouds for much of today with clearing by mid
to late afternoon. Gusty winds will relax somewhat by sunset but
remain breezy this evening.


Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

A sharp dryline will advance into the western areas by mi-day
with strong gusty winds and humidity values dropping. Red Flag
conditions will be likely for areas along and west of I-49 this
afternoon. Outdoor burning is strongly not recommended this
afternoon where the Red Flag Warning has been issued.


MO...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ066-077-088-093-101.

KS...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
FIRE WEATHER...Griffin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.