Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 141744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1244 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Omega blocking pattern aloft remains in place over the U.S. and
Canada early this morning with a low entering the west coast, a
highly amplified ridge over the Rockies and another low over the
eastern Great Lakes. Northwest flow aloft continued from the
northern plains into our CWA. Surface high pressure was located
over the area with a light and variable wind. 2 AM temperatures
were in the upper 20s to mid 30s and with dewpoints in the teens,
humidity levels have only recovered into the 40s and 50s so far.
This could be problematic later on in the day with humidity levels
dropping back down into the teens and 20s. As the surface high
slides to the south of the area today, southwest winds will kick
up, fairly light in the eastern CWA, but may have some gustiness
in the west. Most of the area will be in elevated levels for fire
weather concerns due to the humidity in the afternoon, with some
spotty significant levels in the far western CWA. May be going
with a Red Flag warning out west, but will make that final
determination after further coordination with surrounding offices.
Temperatures today will be warmer than yesterday with the
southwest wind developing in the wake of the surface ridge. Highs
should climb into the upper 50s to low 60s.

Tonight, southerly winds will continue and should see some rising
heights aloft as the main low continues to push east and upper
ridging in advance of the Pacific low also shifts further east
into the plains. Lows tonight as a result will dip into the mid
30s to low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Low pressure will begin to develop in the high plains ahead of the
upper level system on Thursday. Upper ridge will move eastward
over the area with southerly winds increasing over the area ahead
of the low. This will bring temperatures into the 60s and 70s over
the area and begin to increase moisture over the region as well.
We still have elevated fire weather concerns, however humidity
levels should be higher than today. A decent southwesterly low
level jet will set up Thursday night with good warm air advection
ahead of the low. Some showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across the area Thursday night into Friday. Instability axis will
shift east across the area on Friday, however a dry slot moves in
from west to east during the day as well and precipitation will
mainly be over the eastern CWA by the afternoon. There may be some
stronger storms over far south central MO during the afternoon,
but the better instability looks to be much further south of the

Most of Saturday looks to be dry, however more shortwave energy
begins to move into the area by late Sunday into Monday and will
bring the next round of showers and thunderstorms to the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR. Sfc high pressure centered over AR will
drift sse while low pressure continues to move into the High
Plains. West-southwest winds will increase this afternoon with
some 25kt gusts briefly possible at KSGF and KJLN before 00z.
Low level wind fields support a mention of low level wind shear
after 06z. South winds will pick back up late in the taf period.


MO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-077-088.

KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.