Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 232013

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
313 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...Heavy Rainfall and Potential Flooding Will Be The Main Focus
Early Next Week...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

A warm front is currently position near the Highway 54 corridor
and down into the eastern Ozarks. Temperatures were in the lower
50s north of the warm front and the lower 70s across far southeast
Kansas and southwest Missouri. Breezy southerly winds will keep
temperatures up tonight in the upper 50s to around 60 south of the
frontal boundary. An upper level storm system will move across
the region tonight. Models show scattered showers and isolated
storms will develop later this evening and overnight ahead of an
advancing cold front. No severe weather is expected due to lack of
instability. Overall rainfall amounts will be light and not
everyone will see rainfall tonight. Winds will shift westerly then
northwesterly behind the front Saturday morning. Saturday will be
cooler and breezy with clouds decreasing from west to east during
the day.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Canadian high pressure will build in for Saturday night with most
temperatures falling into the lower and middle 30s. Sunday will be
mostly dry before our next disturbance starts moving in with
showers. The overall weather pattern setup will be a deep
southwest flow in the middle and upper atmosphere. An upper level
trough will move across the western U.S. early next week. Deep
Gulf moisture along with moisture from the Pacific will continue
to increase over the region early next week. Forecast precipitable
water values are around 1.5 inches. That is at the top of the
climatology charts on PW values.

We will see a series of disturbances ride along the southwest
flow starting Sunday evening through middle of next week. We will
likely see round after round of rainfall, some of that will be
moderate to heavy rainfall. The time period of heaviest rainfall
may occur Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. There are some
differences in timing with the models but all share the same
trend. Models show a pseudo cut off upper level low energy
hanging back towards the southwestern U.S. towards the middle of
next week. This will eventually open up and swing through the
region with additional chances of rainfall through the end of next
week. Widespread 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts
up to 5 inches look increasingly possible for early next week. We
will have to keep an eye on trends and potential flooding


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

The main aviation concerns for pilots flying in and out of the
area will be gusty southerly winds up to 20 or 25 knots this
afternoon into tonight as well as scattered convection developing
late this evening into the late night along a cold front. VFR
conditions will prevail for the rest of the afternoon but MVFR
ceilings will move in later this evening as well as scattered CB.
Winds will be southerly and gusty shifting to southwesterly and
then westerly by tomorrow morning.




SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Griffin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.