Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 032345
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
645 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

Scattered storms have developed across the area this afternoon and
will continue into the evening hours. Deep layer shear is weak,
so these storms are pulse in nature. Instability is increasing
with the heating of the day and the cap weak so expect scattered
storms to continue to develop into this evening. 0-3km bulk shear
vectors are point to the southeast so expected new storms to
develop to the south and east along the outflows of previous
storms through this evening. Theta-E difference are in the 20 to
30 range and there is not too much dry air that has to be
overcome in the middle and lower levels of the atmosphere. This
will lead to the potential for some strong to marginally severe
storms with winds up to 50 to 60 mph with a few of the strongest
storms this afternoon into this evening. Otherwise winds to 30 to
40 mph will occur with the storms. Hail up to pennies may be
possible with a few of the storms but overall the updrafts likely
won`t persist long enough for big hail to develop with the lack of
deep layer shear and the storms being pulse in nature.
Precipitable water values are also quite high with values around 1
3/4" to near 2". This will lead to these storms being proficient
rain producers leading to brief heavy downpours occurring with the
storms. The storm motions will be slow but overall they should
not last in one place long enough for widespread flooding to
occur, but areas that see multiple storms or storms stall longer
over one place could see some localized minor flooding into this
evening.

Temperatures are generally in the upper 80s to the lower 90s with
heat index values in the middle 90s to around 100 degree this
afternoon. Any locations that are effected by storms will get a
nice cool down, but with the storms being scattered in nature
this will not be widespread.

Instability will decrease later this evening and expect coverage
in storms to decrease later this evening but may not totally
dissipate. As elevated instability with little cap will be in
place through the overnight hour. Therefore, isolated showers and
storms will likely persist overnight but coverage will be less
than this afternoon and evening overall. If storms can track over
the same locations there could be a very localized flooding risk
overnight.

A weak upper level disturbance will move across Kansas overnight
and could trigger some storms, and it`s possible these storms will
develop into a complex and dive to the southeast. The better
chances for this activity should remain to the west and south of
the area but cannot rule out it clipping portions of extreme
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri overnight into Saturday
morning.

Saturday overall may be similar to today with highs in the upper
80s to the lower 90s and heat index values in the 90s to around
100. Scattered storms will once again develop mainly during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Theta-E difference may not be
quite as strong tomorrow but still cannot rule out a strong storm
or two with wind gusts up around 40 to 50 mph with a few of the
strongest storms. Frequent cloud to ground lightning and brief
down pours can also be expected with the scattered pulse time
storms Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

Sunday will see slightly drier air move into the mid levels of
the atmosphere, which will limit the storm chances during the
afternoon hours as it will be harder for updrafts to overcome the
dry air. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to the lower
90s, but with a little drier air in place heat index values are
expected to be in the lower to middle 90s.

An upper level disturbance will lift north into the area later
Sunday evening and Sunday night into Monday and will trigger some
scattered showers and storms across the area. The severe risk
will be low with lightning and locally heavy rain the main risk.

An upper level ridge will be over the region through much of the
week with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s and heat index
values in the middle 90s to around 100 occurring each afternoon.
The weak upper level disturbance will remain under the ridge and
will bring daily scattered chances for shower and storms to the
area, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, but a
complete washout is not expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

Still seeing isolated storm development over the region late this
afternoon but seeing a slightly more organized area of storms
developing to the north and northwest of the Springfield and
Joplin aerodromes. Have included tempo storms from around 02Z to
08Z as the storms are building to the southeast of their current
position and interacting with remnant outflow boundaries and a
very moist airmass.

Have also included storms in the tafs for tomorrow afternoon as
models show a weakness in the upper ridge over the region and
afternoon heating increases instability. Any storms that develop
should have a slow north to south movement.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Terry



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