Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 180737
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
237 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Upper level vort max over the CWA this morning was aiding in the
development of showers across the eastern half of the area. Weak
surface flow, small dewpoint depressions and wet ground was also
aiding in patchy fog development, especially where skies were
briefly clearing. MU capes were generally less than 1000j/kg
therefore lightning will not be common early this morning with
instead just some brief moderate rain showers.

A mid level ridge will build in from the west today and shunt the
upper level vort off to the east. Some lingering showers and
maybe a rumble of thunder is possible across the far eastern
ozarks through the afternoon hours with highs ranging from the low
80s out west to the mid 70s out east.

A low level jet will develop tonight across Central Kansas into
Oklahoma with the potential for a complex of showers and
thunderstorms to develop on the nose of that jet along with
forcing for ascent from a incoming shortwave. These storms will
likely remain to the northwest of our CWA however can not rule out
an isolated shower or storm reaching our NW CWA late tonight into
early Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Mid level heights will rise even further on Saturday with 850mb
temps reaching 20-22C across the area. An elevated mixed layer
looks to move in from the southwest during the day with a warm
front developing across Central into Northern Missouri. Should be
a very warm day with highs in the upper 80s, potentially even a
90 degree temp possible. Very slight chances pops are in the
forecast however it should mainly be dry Saturday with the cap in
place.

Another complex of showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday
evening across northeast Kansas into Northwest Missouri near the
frontal boundary and low pressure system. Remnants of this
activity may spark isolated to scattered showers/storms Sunday,
especially across the northern half of the area.

Disturbances will move through the area on a daily basis next week
with a rather pessimistic PoP forecast. While it likely wont rain
everyday, there will be at least isolated to scattered storms
around. Models do have slightly higher rain chances around
Wednesday as a stronger shortwave passes through. Humidity levels
will remain high this week with dewpoints well into the 60s with
high temps in the 80s. We seemed to have skipped Spring and went
straight to a Summer pattern...



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Pilots can expect prevailing VFR conditions at area terminals
through Thursday but will have to monitor for potential MVFR to
locally IFR conditions overnight into early Thursday. Expect to
see patchy to perhaps areas of fog and low stratus overnight into
early Thursday morning. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail by
Thursday afternoon. Surface winds will be light.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Foster


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