Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 141816
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
116 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Surface cold front was currently pushing through the CWA with
drier and cooler air coming in from the west. Remaining batch of
rain across the eastern Ozarks will likely linger a few more hours
given that the upper level low has slowed and will take its time
moving east. Plenty of cloud cover will move in today, especially
from midday onward. Northwest winds will increase during the day
and evening and it will feel much colder than previous days.

Upper level low moves overhead tonight. Cold air gets wrapped into
this system and temps will fall with cold air advection occuring.
A batch of light precip is expected on the backside of the low as
it moves through, mainly during the overnight hours and mainly
along and north of Interstate 44 closer to US Highway 54.
Forecast soundings for the northern half of the area show that for
a while we lose cloud ice as a dry slot moves through, therefore
drizzle is expected. As temps fall below freezing then some brief
freezing drizzle is possible. Expecting very tiny, if any amount
and not expecting any impacts at this time. Even with most of the
saturation below 850mb, given the very cold temps above that,
there may still be some flurries as well. This will be more common
towards Sunday morning as some cloud ice returns.

Low temps will likely drop into the upper 20s to around 30 for the
western half of the area and therefore a Freeze Warning will be in
effect for Overnight into early Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Any remaining precip will likely exit by late Sunday morning as
the upper low pulls away. Considerable cloud cover will exist for
Sunday with 850mb temps around -8C. This is quite cold for the
time of year and with gusty northwest winds and cloud cover, high
temps will likely remain at least 25 degrees below average. Many
areas will struggle to get into the lower 40s with some locations
staying in the upper 30s.

We clear out Sunday night as high pressure builds in from the west.
Temps will likely fall into the middle to upper 20s and another
hard freeze is likely for the entire area by Monday morning. A
Freeze Warning will likely be issued later for this period.

Moderating temps occur Monday and Tuesday as a mid level ridge
builds in. High temps will warm into the 70s on tuesday out ahead
of an approaching disturbance. Not much moisture will be available
for this system and the main energy will pass to our north.
Therefore a dry cold front passage is likely Tuesday night. Next
chance of precipitation is late Friday into the weekend as another
storm system approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

CLoud cover will continue to move over the region through this
evening and tonight as a cold system moves across northern
Missouri. Ceilings will bounce between MVFR and low end VFR with
heights from 2500 to 3500 ft AGL. After Midnight ceilings will be
solidly MVFR. Some light flurries or freezing drizzle may occur
as the cold air moves over the area.

Surface winds will remain gusty through Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ066>068-
     077>081-088>096-101>105.

KS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Hatch



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