Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 192323
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
623 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Highest storm chances early in the TAF period will be with
scattered convection impacting KBVO from 00z-01z. Additional
storm chances will increase at all sites later tonight, and will
include prob groups that will carry into the 2nd half of the TAF
period. Cigs to largely remain VFR, but will fall into MFVR
categories along with VSBYS in thunderstorms.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms have developed northwest of I-44, near the
remains of an outflow boundary. Additional activity has formed
along a surface boundary extending farther back into
western/southwestern OK. Storms in vicinity of the boundary across
northeast OK will have a tornado threat for the next few hours,
and eventually expect a few clusters of storms to advance toward
eastern OK and possibly northwest AR later tonight. Main threat
with the latter activity will be large hail and damaging winds
although an overall weakening trend is expected.

Will hang on to low PoPs into Sunday as the main surface front
moves through the region. Severe threat appears minimal at this
time as leftover convection/residual cloud cover should result in
cooler and more stable conditions.

Mid-level heights rise some going into next week, with seasonally
warm and humid conditions prevailing. Minor disturbances within
the weak upper flow will result in mostly afternoon scattered
convection.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....23



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