Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 250334 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1034 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Issued at 1014 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

No noteworthy changes made to the forecast for tonight/Sunday.
Still looks like there will be some light precipitation
developing/moving up across central/north central South Dakota at
or after 08-09Z in the morning. Surface temps will be supportive
of rain and/or freezing rain. Lesser likelihood of sleet. If the
precipitation can stick around along the NoDak/SoDak border Sunday
morning, could see the precipitation briefly change over to snow
before ending. Plan for slick roads due to rain freezing on impact
with road/bridge/sidewalk surfaces.

UPDATE Issued at 704 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

A storm system crossing the region will bring mixed precipitation
back into the region tonight through Sunday. Followed model trends
for timing of pcpn, which should reach the Missouri Valley around
9Z, and the James River Valley close to 14Z. Buffer soundings, along
with cross sections indicate a warm layer between 850-700 mb with
partial melting possible. P-type could come down to surface
temps, which should hover within a few degrees of freezing. Very
complex forecast with low forecast confidence in the amount of ice
and snow. Precipitation type will be a mix of freezing rain and
sleet, along with an outside possibility for rain in the southern
part of the CWA and snow along the ND/SD border.

As for QPF amounts, used a blend of hi-res models which ended up
similar to WPC`s QPF. Amounts should range below a quarter of an
inch. How much of that falls a snow or mixed, is unclear at this
time. A winter weather advisory could be needed tonight through
Sunday morning for the mixed precipitation. Will follow
surrounding WFOs and issue a special weather statement and allow
the evening shift to issue the advisory as needed.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

The main challenge in the extended period is precipitation chances
and type Sunday night and Monday. A surface low will strengthen over
eastern Colorado/western Kansas during that time period, with
precipitation on the north side of it spreading across the CWA late
Sunday night through Monday evening. This system looks to once again
produce a mix of precipitation types late Sunday night/early Monday
morning, then again Monday evening when temperatures hover around
the freezing mark. With daytime temperatures in the mid 30s to lower
40s, will see more rain during the daylight hours. The remainder of
the extended period will be quieter, with just a couple of weak
systems possibly bringing a little rain or snow to the area.

Temperatures will be the coolest on Monday, with highs in the mid
30s to lower 40s. Will see more seasonable temperatures on Tuesday
and Wednesday, with highs in the 40s and 50s before slightly cooler
air returns Friday and Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Extra-Fuel Sub-VFR stratus is expected to persist tonight through
Sunday, except at KATY. Sub-VFR stratus could improve to VFR
stratus at KATY overnight. Another storm system will cross the
region tonight through Sunday morning with mixed precipitation
possible. The terminals of KPIR, KMBG and KABR will have the best
potential of seeing light pcpn briefly.




LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Dorn is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.