Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 212345

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
745 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

A coastal storm is impacting the region through this evening,
bringing several inches of snow to parts of northeast
Pennsylvania and Sullivan County in New York State. The rest of
the area will remain cloudy and cool, with scattered flurries
or a few snow showers through Friday. Thursday night to Friday
night flurries and snow showers will be mostly across central
New York.


330 PM update...

No changes to current headlines. Still have winter weather
advisories across the far south. Snow there now but a retreat
back to the south this afternoon. Greatest amounts have been in
far southern Luzerne County. The area of snow is expected to
pivot northwest into Sullivan County late this afternoon and
evening before lifting east toward midnight when the advisory
ends. Sharp edge to the snow with very little snow north of
Scranton and Monticello. At the low levels dry air is still
moving in from the northeast so radar echoes deceiving on how
far north the snow actually is. Could be up to an additional 5
inches of snow across the southern half of Pike County.

The rest of today the upper level low captures the surface low
well east of NJ then turns northeast to Nova Scotia Thursday.

A low level northerly upslope flow could bring some flurries or
light snow showers into the Finger Lakes tonight into thursday
morning. With shallow moisture below the dendrite zone freezing
drizzle is possible. Amounts of anything will be very light.
Weak low level lift will have to overcome NVA and rising upper
level heights.

Thursday midday and afternoon will be dry with better mixing and
an weak upper level ridge. Overnight lows in the low and mid 20s
will recover to the mid and upper 30s Thursday.


330 PM Update...

A cool northwest flow off of Lake Ontario will continue under a
deep upper level trough over the northeast US. Temperatures will
remain below normal. As a short wave drops slowly through the
area Thursday night and Friday snow showers will be possible
mostly in central NY but at times extending into NEPA. A little
better low level moisture to 5k feet which is also where the
dendrite zone is. There will be some lake enhancement as 850mb
temperatures drop to -10c. Again these snow showers will be
light and scattered to isolated with little accumulation. Snow
will have a tough time sticking to the road during the day due
to air and road temperatures above freezing. Highs Friday for
most of the cities in the mid 30s. Lows Thursday night again in
the low and mid 20s fall to upper teens and lower 20s Friday


Saturday through Sunday night:

Our region will be in between a low pressure system tracking through
the Ohio Valley and a high pressure system moving across Hudson Bay
at the surface. Modeling continues to be consistent that
influence from the high pressure system will keep any
significant influence from the Ohio Valley low pressure system
south of the region.

However, an upper level low is still likely to be over Eastern New
England and one more shortwave is modeled to come through late
Saturday into Sunday. This may bring a round of flurries or very
light snow showers with the highest chance in the afternoon hours
when the lapse rates are steepest. Right now the forecast
features a slight chance of precipitation across eastern
portions of the area. Little if any snow accumulation will
occur. Also, temperatures will warm enough for rain to mix in
particularly in valley locations. This forecast is more in line
with model consensus and blend with less weight given to the
ECMWF suite which is a few degrees cooler. Highs will be in the
30`s to low 40`s with morning lows around 20.

Monday through Wednesday:

The high pressure system will move offshore allowing for a warmer
southerly flow to become dominant. A gradual warming trend will
begin as well. Tuesday has a shot to be a fairly warm day with
some locations hitting 50. Based on a look of 925/850 mb
temperatures it would not be surprising to see the model
guidance warm a couple of degrees more for Monday and Tuesday.

Modeling continues to show the approach of the next cold front
on Wednesday from the west. Will introduce a chance of rain
showers/mixing with snow to the forecast on Wednesday.
Temperatures look warm enough for mainly rain at this time in
most locations. However, surface temperatures in the mornings
look to be around freezing leaving the window open for mixed
precipitation. The modeled boundary layer looks well above
freezing at this time so if surface temperatures do end up below
freezing, freezing rain may end up being a preferred wintry
p-type over snow. These fine tune details will be sorted out as
we get closer to the event.


Conditions should remain VFR through the overnight. There is
some potential for a SCT-BKN MVFR deck late Thur morning and
into the have introduced low-end VFR cigs along
with a period of gusty north to northwest winds.


Thursday night through Monday...Mainly VFR. A period of lower
ceilings is possible Thursday night into Friday.


PA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ044-
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ062.


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