Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 252032
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
332 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...

A large area of rainfall is moving across Northeast Arkansas into
the Missouri Bootheel and into West Tennessee. Cloud bases are
fairly high, so a lot of the rain is not reaching the ground, but
as the atmosphere moistens and temperatures cool toward the dew
point this afternoon, rain will become more widespread and
heavier. Additional development is expected farther South of the
initial rain area, tracking to the East resulting in a wet night
across the entire Midsouth. Rainfall totals overnight will likely
exceed one half of an inch area wide with portions of North
Mississippi approaching 1.5 inches. Only isolated weak
thunderstorms are expected...mainly in North Mississippi. These
showers and thunderstorms are the result of another cutoff low
approaching the Midsouth. This feature should be centered over
the Middle Mississippi River valley around sunrise tomorrow, over
Northeast Mississippi by Midday and move across North Alabama
tomorrow afternoon. Unlike the last cutoff low, this one is
expected to become more of a progressive open wave as it moves
across the region. As a result...rain should not hang along quite
as long. However, models often end rain and clear skies too
quickly with theses systems so will lean a bit slower in the
forecast. Rain should taper off from West to East tomorrow evening
with dry conditions tomorrow night. Clouds will linger into
Friday. Behind the low a weak cold front will move across the
Midsouth on Friday. The passage of the front will mark the end of
any rain chances. The post frontal airmass won`t be cooler.
Temperatures Friday and Saturday are actually expected to be
warmer due to increased sunshine.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front Friday into
Saturday. A strong ridge will build over the Rockies resulting in
Northwest Flow across the Plains into the Midsouth. The Ridge and
surface high will result in a dry and sunny weekend. Temperatures
will be slightly below normal. Highs Saturday and Sunday should be
in the low to middle 70s. Morning lows will be mainly in the 40s.
Winds Saturday will be from the North over the weekend as the
surface high shifts over the Appalachians.

Dry conditions are expected to continue into early next week. The
axis of a ridge aloft should move across the Mississippi river
early Monday with a trough digging over the Western US resulting
in Southwest flow across the Midsouth. Clouds should begin to
increase by Tuesday afternoon with rain chances returning by
midweek. Temperatures will trend warmer. Near normal conditions
are expected Monday with slightly warmer than normal temperatures
Tuesday into Midweek.

30

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF Set

VFR conditions will continue into the evening hours and then
deteriorate during the late evening/overnight hours to IFR/MVFR
as the heaviest showers associated with the upper low move into
the region. There could be some isolated embedded thunderstorms
but for now have left mention of thunder out of the TAFS. IFR/MVFR
conditions will linger into Thursday morning. Winds will
generally be light and variable until the low moves to the east
then winds will turn around to the NW and increase to 10-12 KTS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$


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