Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 192227
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
227 PM PST Sat Jan 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Much warmer conditions will be felt this weekend under a passing
ridge aloft, with weak offshore flow at the surface. A deepening
trough will bring cooler weather on Monday as the marine layer
surges back inland on westerly winds, which will become strong
from the mountain tops to the desert slopes Sunday night into
Monday. Clouds, and even a few light showers, are possible along
and west of the mountains Sunday night through Monday morning.
Conditions will warm Tuesday through Friday with gusty northeast
winds in the mountains and on the coastal foothills, especially
strong Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Light offshore flow noted with gradients peaking this morning
about 7 mb from the Mojave Desert. Otherwise it is mainly clear
and relatively warm especially west of the mountains due to the
light offshore flow. Gusty offshore winds through the passes and
foothills below Cajon Pass but have mainly been below advisory
thresholds. Gusty offshore winds likely again tonight through
Sunday morning but again not likely to reach advisory thresholds.
Offshore flow will weaken Sunday and transition to onshore Sunday
night and become quite strong by Monday morning. Gusty onshore
winds through the mountains and along the desert slopes and the
desert floor will likely reach advisory thresholds for most areas
with remote locations possibly reaching warning criteria by Monday
morning. Will likely require wind headlines in the next shift or
two for late Sunday night or Monday morning through Monday
afternoon.

Some light showers still possible Monday morning, mainly west of
the mountains, as a strong trough, mainly as an inside slider,
passes through SoCal through Monday evening along with a sharp
cold front.

Offshore flow will develop late Monday night and become strong
Tuesday morning through Tuesday night with another possibility of
wind headlines for locations west of the mountains. Offshore flow
will become lighter through the remainder of next week but very
warm conditions will persist basically from Wednesday through the
end of the week with temperatures likely to ring up 10 to 20
degrees above normal west of the mountains during this time, with
periodic gusty offshore winds, but otherwise with tranquil weather
conditions for all areas as a relatively strong upper ridge
persists across the West Coast into next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
192115Z...Coast/Valleys...SCT clouds above 20,000 ft MSL through
tonight. Patches of fog could again reduce vis to 1-3 miles late
tonight in low-lying, wind sheltered areas of the inland valleys.
Most likely vcnty KAJO and KCNO.

Northeasterly winds 15-25 knots gusting to 30-40 knots with LLWS
and moderate up/downdrafts over and west of the mtns this
afternoon. Winds will decrease tonight.

Deserts...SCT clouds above 20,000 ft MSL through tonight.

&&

.MARINE...

West-northwest swells of 5 to 8 feet with a period of 11 seconds
through Monday. The winds will be light today and Sunday, then
increase significantly Sunday night and Monday. Small Craft
Advisories may be needed Sunday night and Monday for strong
northwest winds of 20-30 kt.


&&

.BEACHES...

A west-northwest swell from 285-295 degrees with a period of
10-11 seconds will bring surf of 4 to 7 feet this evening and 4-6
feet Sunday through Monday. The surf combined with morning high
tides of 6.5 to 7.0 feet could produce minor coastal flooding at
flood prone beaches including Seal Beach, Sunset Beach, Cardiff,
and Imperial Beach. A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through
noon Monday for possible beach flooding during the early morning
high tides.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
 encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Brotherton
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PG



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