175
FXUS64 KSHV 131202
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
702 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A break in the active weather is anticipated this morning, before
shower and thunderstorm coverage increases again into the
afternoon hours. The boundary that will assist in atmosphere
recovery for this afternoon severe weather has hit a snag, and
likely won`t make it as far north as previously anticipated. In
turn, the best severe environment looks to remain to the south as
well. The SPC has introduced a hail and wind driven Enhanced Risk
that partially clips most of our southern zones, with the slight
risk being slightly pulled back from the north. Even with these
changes, the overall thinking remains the same today. Once the
trough begins to move east, thunderstorms will expand in coverage
along the boundary into the afternoon and evening hours. Damaging
winds and large hail still remain the main threats for us, with
flash flooding being the secondary threat given heavy rainfall
rates.

Based on rainfall amounts on Sunday, we went ahead and trimmed
back the existing flood watch to only cover the wettest areas.
Here, an additional 1-3 inches of rain are possible through
Tuesday morning, with locally heavier amounts certainly possible.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

After a brief two day drying period, the next round of weather
will begin working into the region by Thursday morning. Low level
moisture will greatly increase ahead of this trough, which will
allow for these showers and thunderstorms to also be very
efficient rain producers. Given forecast rain amounts, another
Flood Watch will likely be considered into the weekend, as
another 1-3 inches of rainfall are possible in these already
saturated areas. Severe weather also remains to be seen, as there
are still plenty of question marks about instability return into
the afternoon hours Thursday.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

For the 13/12z TAFS....Low cigs have prevailed across the region,
resulting in IFR/LIFR flight categories. Fog has develop over the
area this morning, but should diminish by mid morning. Low cigs
will keep reduced flight categories over the region through a good
portion of today, Otherwise, expect additional convection to
develop during the afternoon hours over all the TAF sites.
Eventually a frontal boundary will push through, bringing clearing
skies and WNW winds. However, some patchy fog will be possible by
the end of the TAF period. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  85  62 /  40  30   0   0
MLU  83  65  85  62 /  50  40  10   0
DEQ  78  59  81  56 /  50  30  10   0
TXK  81  64  83  59 /  40  30   0   0
ELD  80  62  82  59 /  40  30  10   0
TYR  81  64  84  61 /  40  20   0   0
GGG  82  64  84  61 /  40  20   0   0
LFK  84  64  86  61 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ017-018-020-022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ149-152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...20