Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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986 FXUS63 KDDC 100731 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 231 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A dry and mild end to the workweek across southwest Kansas. - Forecast trend is becoming more favorable for a wet weather pattern this weekend and next week. - Probabilities of 0.5 inch of rain or more from late Saturday through mid Monday are increasing. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 06Z surface observations and RAP upper air analysis has a large upper low centered in Utah with west to southwest winds aloft moving through the central plains. An area of PVA and 700 mb shortwave has led to some light rain showers mainly in eastern New Mexico and southeast Colorado. As the rain moves east with lesser moisture at the surface we are just seeing a band of mid level clouds moving into far western Kansas. Boundary layer winds continue out of the north to northeast as a surface high in central Wyoming and the clockwise flow around it is keeping the winds northerly. For today the surface high will slide into eastern Colorado and this will lead to generally light north winds. Periods of mid to high level clouds will move across southwest Kansas as we should see some weak PVA and 700 mb lift across eastern Colorado and southwest Kansas. Highs will reach into the 70s. Tonight we shouldn`t see much movement with the upper low as it will still be around the Utah-Arizona border. However southwest winds at 500-700 mb and winds turning east to southeast in west Texas will increase the moisture and upslope flow that we should start to see a band of light rain develop in these regions. Overall Kansas should stay dry as the winds will stay northerly and the bulk of the higher surface moisture will stay to the south. Clouds will be on the increase during the overnight hours and we should see overcast skies in far southwest Kansas by morning. Saturday should start out dry and the latest trends in the short and medium time framed models have the 700 mb low and increasing moisture reaching far southwest Kansas after the noon hour. POPs should increase after 18Z and by 21Z we will have 40-50% POPs for areas from Liberal to Syracuse on west. Low amounts of CAPE will negate any severe threat but there will be enough energy for a few embedded thunderstorms. We could see rainfall totals approaching 0.10 inch in the far southwest by sunset as Euro and GEFS ensembles have 40-70% probabilities of 0.10 inch at Elkhart by 00Z. More details on the widespread rain event for southwest Kansas will be detailed in the long term. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Medium time frame models show widespread light rain overspreading southwest Kansas during the evening and early overnight hours from Saturday night into Sunday as the main 700 mb lift goes from southwest to northeast. Rainfall amounts should be around 0.10 of inch with the initial first round of rain as probabilities of 0.10 are pretty high west of highway 83 at 50-80% and lesser as you go east at 30-50%. This particular system will bring waves of rain as the initial forcing will weaken after midnight and we should see a break in the rain. Sunday morning we should see another round of rain develop as the 700 mb low moves into eastern Colorado and stronger PVA will lead to a deepening low. With greater forcing and ample moisture (forecast dewpoints in the mid 50s) we will see rain increase in coverage and intensity during the day and by mid to late afternoon 6 hour forecast rainfall totals of 0.10-0.50 inch become quite common across southwest Kansas. EPS has near 100% probability of 0.10 inch during the day and 0.50 inch is 50-70% from late afternoon Sunday through Sunday night. This lines up with the closed low slowly moving into Kansas by early Monday morning and the upper level winds are still trending lighter on the south side of the low which would suggest the eastward propagation of the low will be slow. This would be good news for extending amounts of gentle rain across southwest Kansas as the forcing and moisture should keep rain around southwest Kansas at least through noon Monday and perhaps into the afternoon with some rain developing on the backside of the low from Liberal to Hays on east. Total QPF at this point is approaching widespread 0.75-1 inch of rain for southwest Kansas. Severe weather threat will be low however there will be enough energy for a few embedded thunderstorms. Tuesday will be a dry day and then mid week chances of rain increase again (30-40% POPs) on Wednesday. An upper level trough and 700 mb closed low will come out of the northwest and similar to the first system the upper level winds won`t be very strong so a slower propagation to the east is the trend at this point. This will keep rain chances into Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Near 100% probability of VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. A band of mid level clouds will lower ceilings to around 15 kft through the overnight and mid morning hours. Winds in general will be 5-12 kts sustained with a few gusts as high as 15 kts in the afternoon. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tatro LONG TERM...Tatro AVIATION...Tatro