Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 301105 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
505 AM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Isold convection moving nw to n over nw NM at 11Z will continue to
diminish. Upper ridge axis to transition over NM during the next 24
hrs. Fewer showers and storms expected as compared to recent days
over wrn and nrn NM aft 18Z. Sct mid to high level clouds associated
with a weak circulation over chihuahua may move into se and south
central NM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...322 AM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
A smattering of thunderstorms will be found across the mountains and west
this afternoon and evening, but the overall coverage will be considerably
less as compared to recent days. In fact, most valley locations of central
and western New Mexico are expected to remain storm free the next 24
hours. Going into the weekend, a significant increase in storm
coverage is expected especially late Saturday and Sunday. A moist
backdoor cold front will push into the northeast plains on Saturday
spreading deeper moisture and increased storm chances west and south
through Sunday. An active monsoon pattern will continue early next
week before some drying reduces storm coverage by mid- week. Daytime
temperatures will be near to several degrees below average through
Monday before trending a bit warmer mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
Isolated storms along and west of the Rio Grande Valley late
Thursday evening were diminishing early this morning. Models persist
with the idea today will be a down day with fewer showers and storms
that will track to the northwest and north. Even the NAM12, which has
been the wetter model, indicates little in the way of activity today
and tonight. With the upper ridge axis in transition today through
Saturday to a north-south orientation extending through the Rockies,
cell motion will be more to the northwest and north today and on
Saturday will trend from the northeast to the southwest. In addition,
a surface boundary will slide into northeast NM Saturday morning,
and by late afternoon could be pushing into the Upper Rio Grande
Valley at Taos, as well as extending south of the Sangre de Cristo
mountains and eastward to Tucumcari. This will redirect the focus for
showers and storms Saturday afternoon to north central and northeast
NM, where a few strong to severe storms will be possible. High
temperatures will be a few degrees cooler over the north central and
northeast Saturday and northerly winds associated with boundary over
northeast NM may range from 15-25 mph, at least as indicated by the
current guidance.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

...Significant increase in FF potential Saturday PM through Sunday,
especially for areas along/east of the central mountain chain...

Axis of the semi-permanent upper ridge to remain oriented north-south
just west of the spine of the central/southern Rockies and in close
proximity to the Four Corners and far western NM for the second half
of the upcoming weekend. Steering flow should remain weak and quite
variable with westward extent. A corridor of relatively faster
northwest flow aloft may develop/expand over far northeast NM
Saturday night into Sunday in response to a series of impulses moving
through the NW to SE flow between an anomalously deep upper trough
passing over the Great Lakes Region and the Rockies ridge. Otherwise,
key feature of interest this period will be an associated moist
backdoor cold front that is modeled into the northeast NM earlier in
the day Saturday. This synoptic-scale boundary will press south and
west Saturday PM. 00Z NAM/ECMWF trended faster with the frontal
boundary through eastern NM vs.GFS. Being convectively- aided this
faster timing is preferred. Pattern recognition and past experience
suggests an active thunderstorm period Saturday evening through
Sunday morning with low- level forcing for lift along/north of the
frontal boundary looking quite favorable. The FF potential will be
high given slow storm motions/training effects amidst PWAT values
that surge to 1.2" plus.

Despite relatively weak flow aloft, strong directional shear could
still support upscale organization and a brief pulse-type SVR
along/just north of the southward-moving boundary. However, the FF
threat will be the main concern to include our eastern-most burn
scars along the eastern slopes of the NC mountains. Going into the
Sunday PM, atmospheric moisture and instability will remain more
than ample to support widespread showers and thunderstorms with a
focus shifting farther west and south. To what extent the NE quarter
stabilizes owing to a cooler/somewhat drier boundary layer remains to
be seen for Sunday PM.

Thereafter, models indicate a weak shortwave topping the upper ridge
on Monday before taffying out over the Front Range with some remnants
possibly crossing northeast NM Monday night or Tuesday. During this
period, the upper ridge remains stout per ensemble guidance but also
centered west of the state keeping a generally favorable N/NE to
S/SW steering flow in place. Moisture levels are likely to wane with
time by mid- week but a standard grade monsoon forecast still in
order. Not until next Thursday or Friday does the upper ridge shift
more squarely over NM resulting in fewer storms and hotter temps.
KJ

41

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The weather pattern is undergoing a transition today through
Saturday. The upper ridge axis is forecast to become oriented from
north to south through the Rockies Saturday. Today and tonight will
see a relative minimum of showers and storms mostly concentrated over
the higher terrain, which in general will move to the northwest and
north. Higher chances for wetting rain return Saturday and moreso
Sunday. A front will push into northeast NM Saturday, helping to
initiate convection, and then progress south and westward into the
Rio Grande Valley and through the plains Saturday night. Storm motion
Saturday will be from northeast to southwest and becomes slow and
erratic Sunday, increasing potential for locally heavy rainfall and
flash flooding.

By the middle of next week, the upper high center will be anchored
over AZ and western NM, where some drying and high Haines is
forecast, while the east is more likely to see wetting rains from
showers and storms.

High temperatures through Saturday will be close to normal then cool
below average Sunday through Monday. Vent rates today will be good
to excellent for most locales, but diminish Saturday and moreso
Sunday.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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