317
FXUS63 KABR 151122 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
622 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon and evening south of a line from Wheaton, MN
to Vivian, SD. A marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather
is in place elsewhere. The primary threats will be damaging winds,
large hail, and heavy rain.

- Heavy rain is possible along and east of the James River into west
central Minnesota Tuesday into early Wednesday.

- There will be a noticeable cool-down midweek with highs
potentially 15 to 20 degrees below normal Wednesday and 10 to 15
degrees below normal Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Showers continue to linger in and to the north of the low that
stretches from south central SD northeast toward the Sisseton Hills
early this morning. Hi-res CAMs keep this activity going through
morning and then begin to increase the coverage this afternoon.
General thinking is that CAPE will be high enough south of the cold
front (2000 to 3000 J/kg) to support severe storms. There is a
slight risk (level 2 of 5) south of a line from Wheaton to Vivian
this afternoon and evening mainly for strong, gusty winds and
quarter sized hail. There`s still some discrepancies on the exact
placement and timing of the front. Frontal forcing will be enhanced
by 7.5 to 8.5 degree/km lapse rates and shortwave activity again.
Additionally, the increased threat for localized heavy rain remains
for the James Valley east, especially around the Coteau and Sisseton
Hills. Storms may train or move very slowly in the axis of the low.

Much cooler temperatures are expected today behind the cold front
with temperatures falling in the afternoon into the 60s across the
northern tier. South of the front, highs in the 80s are forecast.
Rain continues through tonight with a brief lull on Wednesday
morning before another wave moves in from the west in the upper
trough. Highs on Wednesday will range 15 to 20 degrees below
average, topping out in the low to mid 60s. The diurnal range
between overnight lows and Wednesday`s highs may need a slight
adjustment given the expected cloud cover.

Surface high pressure builds in Wednesday night with drier
conditions. Southerly flow returns Thursday ahead of a lee side low
in Wyoming. This sets up the potential for further chances of
showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and then Friday into
Saturday as the low moves into SD and NE. The pattern remains active
through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR this afternoon and
evening as lower cigs move in behind a cold front. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon, especially
along and south of the front. Visibility may fall to IFR/MVFR in
heavier showers.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20