Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 262314
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
314 PM AKDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Rainy conditions are expected to persist for several days across
the West Coast and parts of the North Slope. Rainfall accumulations
will be significant along parts of the Seward Peninsula and
western Brooks Range. In addition to the rain, strong southwest
winds are expected to cause elevated surf and increase water
levels along the coast from the Bering Strait south. Showers will
gradually creep inland, reaching the central Interior this
evening, and encompassing most of the Eastern Interior Tuesday.
Cool, showery weather is expected to persist across much of the
forecast area through Wednesday, then a warming and drying trend
will commence Thursday across the Eastern Interior with a return
to high pressure.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft 500 mb...
The complex synoptic pattern can mostly be summarized by a
longwave trough spanning much of the Bering Sea, Alaska, and
northwestern Canada. The pattern is anchored by two prominent
height minima over Wrangel Island and the Gulf of Alaska,
respectively. A weak ridge remains in place across Southcentral
Alaska and the southeast Interior. Southwest to westerly flow
through the pattern will support a stream of moisture onto the
West Coast which will penetrate well east into the Interior. The
Wrangel Low will deepen and move south in the mid week, amplifying
the longwave trough in the Bering Sea. This will in turn
restrengthen the ridge and result in warming and drying across the
eastern Interior later in the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A weather front is moving east across the North Slope this
afternoon supporting light rain and low stratus across much of the
area. East winds will briefly turn southerly overnight as a weak
high chases the front, but will swing back easterly as the next
front advances across the region Tuesday. Another round of rain is
expected with this next system which will persist into Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Rain, heavy at times is expected across the region. South and west
facing shores and mountain slopes will see the most rainfall,
locally up to 3 inches through Wednesday. While no flooding is yet
anticipated, river levels will certainly increase. In addition,
The heaviest rain will taper off late Wednesday but showers will
continue into the weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Cloudy cumulus across the eastern Interior is beginning to give
way to increasing shower activity. As of 3 PM, showers are visible
on radar east and south of Fairbanks. Shower activity will
increaseovernight and continue to spread east. Showers will
persist through Wednesday. Much of the region can expect between
0.10 to 0.25 inches through Wednesday, however locally up to 0.75
inches is possible in the hills north and west of Fairbanks, as
well as north of Eagle. Southwest winds will pick up this
afternoon, with gusts up to 25 mph over hilltops.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Prolonged south to southwest winds across the eastern Bering Sea
will increase to 35 kt by Wednesday and cause increased wave
action along the Seward coast with 3 to 5 feet of surge above the
high water line by Thursday. Wave runup, elevated seas, and
potential high water on the Snake River could combine to cause
potential issues for Nome Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Heavy rain across much of Western Alaska, along with cloudy skies
and showery conditions in the east will limit fire weather over
the next couple of days. However, gusty SW winds are expected
across much of the state. By Thursday, ridging will begin to
rebuild over eastern Alaska, initiating a warming and drying
trend into the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches through Wednesday are expected
across much of the West Coast, primarily the southern Seward coast
and the Western Brooks Range. Drainages out of the Southern Seward
Peninsula and Western Brooks Range will see significant rises in
water levels during the week. Soils will be saturated by mid week
with the potential for heavy rain to trigger rapid rises on
smaller creeks in the area. People living or recreating in these
areas should monitor local conditions and be prepared for rises on
local streams and rivers including the Snake, Niukluk, Buckland,
Kobuk, Noatak and Wulik Rivers.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

COWMAN JUL 21


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