Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 270540

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1240 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.AVIATION...06z TAF Cycle...

VFR conditions are expected through the period as showers near
KGUY and KDHT continue to decrease in coverage early this morning.
There are a few thunderstorms lingering as well, but the odds of
TS occurring at any site this morning is low, so will keep mention
out of TAFs. Isolated thunderstorms could form again this
afternoon, but will not include in TAFs again because of sparse



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 616 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/

00Z Issuance...Sites are currently VFR and expected to remain so
through the period. However, there is a slight chance for
thunderstorms this evening. With such an isolated nature, have
left out of taf, but DHT would be the most likely if one was to
hit a site. Will watch and amend if necessary. Otherwise,
southerly winds will be fairly light with some gusts tomorrow for
AMA during the daytime.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 228 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/

SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow Night...

Tough to pinpoint where the best chance of thunderstorms will be
overnight.  Low level moisture is best in the eastern Panhandles,
but low level convergence is best across the western Panhandles.
Plus the western Panhandles are closest to any convection trying to
move this way from the Raton Mesa.  At this point, it looks like the
west may have the best overall chance, but thunderstorms will be
possible anywhere given the instability due to the heat of the day
and any left over surface boundaries.

On Tuesday, not much changes, except we do have less surface
moisture and therefore, our instability is not as great as today. So
we may see less coverage of storms.

Highs on Tuesday are expected to be in the 90`s with a few 100
degree readings near Borger and Palo Duro Canyon.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

The pattern for the extended includes a ridge spinning
anti-cyclonically over the Central and Southern Plains with
east southeast flow aloft. These easterly winds will drive most of
the monsoonal moisture aloft further west and out of West Texas
with a dry period ahead. Near the surface, lee troughing will
occur mostly over the Rockies with a high residing in the
southeast CONUS, which will bring mostly south southeast winds at
the surface for the Panhandles. These southeast winds will help
keep temperatures just under triple digits through the week.

By next weekend, there is a potential change in the pattern with
the upper high pushing further south into Texas and the flow aloft
becoming turning back to the west and northwest. This opens the
door for monsoonal moisture to push farther east again. Saturday
there is a chance for PoPs mainly in the northwest due to storms
likely coming off the higher terrain. A lee low will form in
southeast Colorado with a return of southwest winds at the
surface. Temperatures Saturday will be the warmest for the
forecast period with highs breaching 100 degrees in multiple
locations across the Southern Plains. A weak cold front will pass
through Sunday with the lee low as temperatures drop a few degrees
lower than Saturday. This frontal passage will bring some of the
moisture back into the Panhandles. Model spread indicates that
there has been some inconsistency for next weekend a decrease in
PoPs for both Saturday and Sunday based on the previous NBM run.
This downward trend will need to be monitored as any slight
change in the pattern could play a key role in the moisture return
for the Panhandles.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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