Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 301147
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
647 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Only a few minor updates needed this morning. Showers continue to
linger across the east this morning from an upper level wave
moving through. Meanwhile, some isolated showers have develop
across the north ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Showers in the
east should diminish later this morning. The showers in the north
a bit more uncertain. These initial ones should also diminish
later this morning, although more isolated activity is possible
along the mentioned front. Made some adjustments for this morning,
and kept a generally dry forecast for the afternoon. Otherwise
look for near normal highs today. Some sites that have already
switched to south winds are starting to see smoke move in from
South Dakota. Expect this to be a pattern for today for southern,
central, and eastern areas that see southerly winds. Made a few
adjustments to account for the potential of increased smoke today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Surface high will continue to push eastward today, while an upper
level wave also moves across the region. Abundant cloud cover
from this wave will be found this morning, with a few lingering
showers also possible for some eastern and southern portions. A
weak northwest flow pattern will then be found aloft for the
remainder of the day, while the exiting surface high brings
southerly winds. This will bring a slight bump in temperatures
today to near normal readings. The southerly winds may also bring
in some wildfire smoke currently placed in SD, and overall from
Canada. This smoke may be enough to further lower visibility
today, and have added this in across mostly central and eastern
areas.

Later today and through tonight a weak elevated front looks to
push through from north to south. There could be an isolated
shower along this front, although moisture looks limited and
instability is also lacking. For now kept the forecast dry for
tonight. Seasonal overnight lows in the 50s and 60s may also be
found tonight. The mentioned smoke may also somewhat diminish to
more lingering haze for tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Overall look for seasonal and dry conditions to start the long
term, with a warming trend and isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms by mid next week.

Northwest flow aloft with a surface high will bring seasonal
temperatures and dry conditions for the weekend. Look for highs in
the 80s each day. The weak front from Friday night may push west
enough to bring some breezy northerly winds across the area on
Saturday. Main impacts could be some more increased smoke across
the area. Afternoon RH may also lower on Saturday, and combined
with the winds could increase the fire weather danger. The lowest
RH values at this time do not line up with the highest winds, thus
no fire weather highlights are anticipated at this time.
Temperatures and RH look to remain the same for Sunday, although
look for winds to lower.

Monday sees another large ridge move into the area. The result
will be a slight warming trend in the temperatures and continued
dry conditions. These slightly warmer temperatures then look to
continue through much of the upcoming week. By mid week the
mentioned ridge looks to break down presenting a more zonal
pattern. The result could be some weak fronts and disturbances at
times, providing for chances for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms at times. Confidence in any one location getting
precipitation at a given time is still only low to moderate, and
widespread precipitation does not look likely at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

A few showers with mainly VFR conditions can be expected through
the morning, with VFR conditions then expected through the
remainder of the forecast. Showers could linger through this morning,
mainly in the James River Valley including KJMS. VFR conditions
are overall expected, with perhaps some brief MVFR in areas with
moderate rain. Elsewhere should see light winds and VFR conditions
through this morning, although an isolated shower is possible in
the north. Showers in the east will diminish this morning, with
perhaps an isolated shower possible across the north this
afternoon. The rest of the forecast looks to be mostly clear with
light winds. Areas of haze and smoke look to be found at times
through the forecast period, especially along and south of
Interstate 94 including the KDIK, KBIS, and KJMS sites.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
SHORT TERM...Anglin
LONG TERM...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin


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