Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 280846

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
446 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

Wednesday should have showers and storms, especially across the
south. Expect drier weather on Thursday and Friday, with a more
typical summertime pattern returning over the weekend.


Early this morning: Scattered light showers due to weak surface
convergence along outflows continue to diminish along the CSRA.
These will continue to weaken and dry by sunrise.

Today: Moisture remains plentiful across the south and east portions
of the CWA. PWATs are currently above 2 inches across much of the
area with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. An upper level trough is
moving east with its axis along the East Coast. The surface low
along southeast GA and SC will move slightly northward then weaken
this afternoon as it gets picked up by the trough. Fewer showers and
storms today as drier air begins to push into upper and mid levels
with cloud coverage decreasing this morning from NW to SE. Some
showers will be possible into the evening, mainly south of I-20. The
movement of the low will make for variable winds through the day,
becoming southeasterly and breezy this afternoon. Highs in the low
to mid 90s.

Tonight: Surface moisture will stick around through at least the
first half of the night. As winds go calm, some patchy fog will
be possible. Lows in the low to mid 70s.


Thursday and Thursday night...Surface front will be well south
of the forecast area with the upper level trough just off the
Atlantic Seaboard. Pwat values will be aob 1.5 inches through
the day keeping the forecast dry. With the mostly sunny skies
temperatures will continue rising with afternoon highs for most
areas in the upper 90s. Heat index values Thursday will also be
on the rise with most locutions between 102 and 105. Thursday
night the situation will change slightly as a short wave trough
rotates through the pattern just north of the forecast area as a
weak surface boundary also slides into VA and NC. This will
spread increasing moisture back into the area with pwat values
rising to around 1.75 inches in the northern Midlands. Even with
the increasing moisture the lack of instability will keep the
forecast dry. Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s.

Friday and Friday night...The surface boundary will continue sliding
southward reaching the northern Midlands by early afternoon and then
stalling across SC Friday night. Although this will have the ability
to act as a focusing mechanism instability will be weak through the
day with pwat values again around 1.5 inches. Increasing moisture
will arrive late in the afternoon across the northern Midlands and
although heating will be waning with sunset expect enough
instability to persist as afternoon highs will be pushing triple
digits. Any convection which develops will diminish by midnight with
partly cloudy skies for the remainder of the night. The heat will be
the main concern Friday as temperatures across the forecast area
will push 100 with heat index values currently expected between 105
and 109. This will fall just short of a heat advisory however with
this being the first occurrence of several days in a row of heat
index values well over 100 caution is urged for those outdoors as
well as plenty of fluids to remain hydrated. Overnight lows Friday
night will again only fall into the mid 70s.


Significant changes are expected during the long term as a
potent trough becomes established over the eastern seaboard
early next week. Prior to this, a hot and humid weekend is on
tap for the forecast area. Temperatures Saturday will range from
the mid-nineties north and east (where thunderstorm chances are
greater) to around the century mark in the CSRA. On Sunday,
readings should be a couple degrees cooler due to the greater
coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the region though
values in southern areas could still be a degree or two above
normal. While it does not appear that Heat Advisory criteria
will be met this weekend in the midlands or CSRA you will need
to remain hydrated if doing any outdoor activities for an
extended period of time during peak heating hours. The impacts
of the east coast trough become apparent on Monday and
especially Tuesday when below normal temperatures are
anticipated (lower to mid eighties on Tuesday) with widespread
cloud cover, showers, and thunderstorms.

As mentioned earlier, the dry weather comes to an end during the
long term with increasing chances of convection each day peaking
on Monday. A front will likely be stalled along the NC/SC border
this weekend with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected. A more potent cold front associated with
the east coast trough arrives later in the day on Monday. PWATs
surge to over 2 inches ahead of the front so widespread showers
and thunderstorms are likely. This front may take its time to
clear the region with additional precipitation possible on
Tuesday, especially in eastern portions of the CWA. Another
brief dry period is possible during the middle part of the next


Most guidance indicating at least MVFR restrictions overnight.

Lingering thunderstorms impacting DNL/AGS but will wind down in
the coming hours. Cigs will lower to MVFR or lower considering
the moist airmass along with fog formation as winds go calm.
Best confidence in Augusta terminals reducing to IFR as abundant
moisture will remain through the morning. VFR expected after
14z with scattered convection developing during the afternoon.
Winds variable less than 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms with associated restriction expected Saturday and




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