Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 262212

National Weather Service Eureka CA
312 PM PDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A surge of monsoonal moisture will bring the chance for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms later today through
Tuesday. Increased clouds across the interior will aid in keeping
high temperatures milder. Inland heat will return mid to late week,
while coastal areas remain seasonably cool.


.DISCUSSION...Stratus once again blanketed much of the coastal
waters and adjacent land areas this morning, along with some areas of
dense fog. Stratus eroded back to the coast across most areas by
afternoon. However, mid and upper cloudiness continues to stream
across the area from the S as monsoonal moisture lifts N.

Model guidance continues to indicate lobes of vorticity on the NW
periphery of the upper ridge to the SE advecting across the northern
portion of the area. Some modest elevated CAPE will be present over
parts of the coastal waters during that time, and this may support an
isolated thunderstorm or two during that time period over the
coastal waters (and potentially along the immediate coast).

BUFKIT model soundings indicated mostly elevated CAPE across portions
of the area through Tuesday, but with CIN present during much of the
time as well. The atmospheric column will continue to moisten
through Tuesday, with precipitable water (PWAT) values over 1.6
inches across the area. While this may act to increase shower
coverage, clouds will also thicken and may limit overall instability.
Moisture levels will decrease as we get later in the week, although
there will still be lingering instability across the interior.
Temperatures will warm again from mid to late week./SEC


.AVIATION...Flight categories have improved from LIFR this morning
at the north coast terminals. Improvements to visibility and ceilings
may be intermittent as upper level moisture advects into the area.
The potential for thunderstorms late tonight may be prefaced by a
return of LIFR conditions in the early evening as low ceilings and
reduced visibility set in. KCEC could have a brief clearing as
visibility increases and cloud groups transition. KACV is improving
as of the 18z TAF period. VFR conditions are expected to continue at
KUKI with showers in the vicinity, late tonight. /EYS


.MARINE...Northerly winds continue over area waters with stronger
winds to the north of our coverage. Therefore, small craft advisories
replace the previous hazardous seas warning for the northern outer
waters. Small craft advisories are in place to cover all waters
except the southern inner coastal region, until mid-day Tuesday. The
forecast area will continue to be dominated by short period, locally
generated wind waves. Conditions are on track to improve
significantly by late afternoon tomorrow. /EYS


.FIRE WEATHER...As mentioned above, mid and upper level moisture
will be increasing through Tuesday. Due to the isolated nature of
expected thunderstorms and lingering uncertainty, have continued to
highlight this threat as headlines in the Fire Weather Forecast
(FWFEKA). Any storms that do develop will be mostly dry today.
Although wetter storms are possible on Tuesday, overall QPF values
are expected to be low, and lightning strikes away from rain shafts
may produce a stray fire start. /SEC


     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM Tuesday for PZZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM Tuesday for PZZ470-475.


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