Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 281154
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
554 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...Updated for 12Z TAF Discussion...

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
Despite a fair amount of mid level clouds, our thunderstorm
chances today, won`t be much better than they were yesterday. We
currently have some mid and high level ceilings across the area
this morning and that looks to continue today and into tonight.
The best chances for thunderstorms today will be in the area
mountains, but a few isolated storms will be possible in the
lowlands. By late morning, our surface winds will be out of the
east or southeast and may get a little gusty this afternoon. The
gusty winds and the thunderstorms will die off during the evening
hours. The mid level ceilings look to stick with us through most
of the night into Thursday morning. Storm movement today will be
toward the west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...344 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021...

.SYNOPSIS...
A low-grade monsoon pattern with isolated chances for storms will
continue until the weekend. Increased moisture by the end of the
week into early next week will bring increased storm coverage to
the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...
Our weather pattern has changed little in the last 24 hours. The
upper level ridge continues to sit over the Midwest and the
circulation around the ridge continues to be lacking much moisture.
Our precipitable water value from last night`s balloon sounding was
down a little from Monday night`s values and that trend looks to
continue today. We will see PW`s right around an inch, which really
isn`t that good for this time of year. Much like Tuesday,
thunderstorms will start in area mountains and then outflows from
the storms will move down into the lowlands and will try to fire off
some other storms. On Tuesday, we saw scattered thunderstorms in
area mountains, but storms had a tough time getting going in the
lowlands. I expect that is what we will see again today, with
scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms. I can`t rule
out that a few spots may get some excessive rains, but we won`t see
widespread flash flooding today.

A few thunderstorms will linger into the late evening hours, but
most storms will drop off after sunset. A few showers will continue
into the overnight hours, but mainly we will just see some left over
clouds lingering into Thursday morning.

High temperatures this afternoon will run a few degrees above
average and then low temperatures Thursday morning will be right
near seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
An upper-level ridge continues to meander over the CO/KS/NE border
and gradually becomes elongated featuring a NW to SE axis.
Meanwhile to our SE, an inverted trough is continuing to make its
way NW and will clip our CWA before it gets ingested into the
upper-level flow by Friday morning. Moisture for storms is
unimpressive for the first part of the period until Saturday morning
a small surge of moisture makes its way into the southern
periphery of the CWA. Dewpoints are ranging in the upper 40s to
low 50s during the first few days.

Precipitation chances for Thursday through Saturday looks to be
garden variety storms initiating in the mountainous terrain and
any outflows will trigger lowland storms. Friday seems to be the
driest of the period. Better moisture looks like it will be found
near western areas. Sunday and the start of next week could be
more interesting for numerous storms in the CWA. Moisture seems to
be creeping in from AZ Sunday morning bumping up dewpoints to mid
and upper 50s. Convection will start off in the afternoon but
lingers until the early hours on Monday. Monday seems to show the
same story as Sunday where convection will initiate in the
afternoon but models are hinting at lingering precipitation into
the early hours Tuesday. Tuesday could bring in the best moisture
of the period where mid and upper 50s dewpoints can be found
through the entire area which will help fuel storms. CAPE values
seem unimpressive for much of the period, only staying in the mid-
hundreds. Maybe some isolated values above 1000 J/kg. Severe
potential does not seem likely, however isolated flooding could be
of concern with increased moisture present into early next week
with above normal PWs and slow storm motions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Our low grade monsoon flow will continue today. We will see
scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms today. We
could see a little better chance for rain on Thursday, but then back
a little drier on Friday. Moisture and rain chances will be on the
increase as we head into the weekend and we will see a good chance
for rain across the whole area for the start of next week. The winds
over the next seven days will stay below critical levels. Min RH`s
will be in the 20`s in the lowlands and in the 30`s in the mountains
today through Sunday and then be a little higher as we head into
next week. Ventilation rates will be fair to good each day into the
coming weekend.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 96  71  92  71 /  10  20  20  20
Sierra Blanca           91  63  85  64 /  10  10  20  10
Las Cruces              95  66  91  66 /  20  20  20  30
Alamogordo              92  66  89  65 /  10  20  30  20
Cloudcroft              70  48  67  48 /  20  20  50  20
Truth or Consequences   92  66  90  67 /  30  30  30  30
Silver City             86  60  82  61 /  30  30  50  50
Deming                  96  66  92  66 /  20  20  20  40
Lordsburg               93  66  90  66 /  20  20  30  40
West El Paso Metro      96  71  93  72 /  10  20  20  20
Dell City               95  66  91  66 /  10  10  20  10
Fort Hancock            95  69  93  69 /  10  20  20  10
Loma Linda              90  64  85  66 /  10  10  20  20
Fabens                  96  70  93  71 /  10  10  20  20
Santa Teresa            95  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  20
White Sands HQ          94  69  90  69 /  20  20  30  20
Jornada Range           94  66  89  67 /  20  20  30  30
Hatch                   95  66  90  67 /  20  20  20  30
Columbus                96  69  91  69 /  20  20  20  30
Orogrande               94  66  90  66 /  10  10  30  20
Mayhill                 79  53  76  54 /  20  20  40  20
Mescalero               79  53  77  53 /  20  20  50  20
Timberon                78  52  75  52 /  20  20  40  20
Winston                 83  54  82  56 /  30  30  50  40
Hillsboro               89  61  87  63 /  30  30  30  40
Spaceport               93  66  88  66 /  20  20  20  30
Lake Roberts            83  54  82  56 /  30  30  50  50
Hurley                  89  60  86  61 /  20  20  40  40
Cliff                   92  58  90  59 /  30  30  50  40
Mule Creek              89  60  86  61 /  30  20  60  40
Faywood                 89  62  86  64 /  30  30  40  40
Animas                  93  64  90  64 /  20  20  30  40
Hachita                 94  64  90  65 /  20  20  20  40
Antelope Wells          92  64  90  64 /  20  30  30  40
Cloverdale              89  61  85  61 /  30  30  50  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/15


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