Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 270825
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
325 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Convective chances and strength remain the main challenges for the
period.

Upper ridging continues across the Rockies and Plains, with
several weak ridge riding shortwaves coming over the top of it. At
the surface, the cool front that has progressed through all but
our far southern counties will start to lift back north a bit as
southerly winds pick up ahead of the next trough. Temps will again
climb to the upper 80s to mid 90s, with dew points in the 60s and
even low 60s moving back into our southern counties. There will be
good instability by afternoon, but mid level temps will also be
rising, which will most likely cap us off to convection for much
of the day.

Many of the ensemble solutions have more convective activity
tonight as another weak ridge rider moves across the area. Given
performance of models lately, do not really trust any one model
but enough of the ensembles have some indications of storms
developing, mainly later tonight and mainly from the Red River
Valley eastward as a surface trough axis pushes into the area.

How Wednesday plays out will depend on exactly how fast the cold
front drops down and how convection in the morning behaves. At
this point, think the There should be enough compressional
warming ahead of the front to get into the mid 90s again across
the south. However, the surface low and front will be past most
of our counties by afternoon, limiting the strong instability to
our eastern tier. Think that there could be some strong to severe
storms that develop in our far east if the timing is right, but
will depend on exact timing of the surface features. Will continue
to keep some POPs going, but think that most of the severe
activity Wednesday afternoon will be further southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

The long term period will be quiet in terms of summer related
impacts as more seasonal temperatures return to the area. Upper
ridging continues to dominate the central CONUS with NW flow along
the 582/588 height lines nearly the entire long term period. The
Wednesday/Thursday timeframe will be a few degrees warmer (mid to
upper 80s) as a cool front drops through late Friday, bringing low
POPs to northern portions of the CWA. Heights do fall a tad and
temps Saturday fall into the low to mid 80s, with areas in the
northeast possibly even falling into the upper 70s for afternoon
highs. Breezy north winds will usher in fairly dry air and make
Saturday feel quite cool compared to temperatures of late. Return
flow sets up late in the period, with south winds bringing a bit
warmer afternoon highs on Tuesday, but still in the mid 80s. A few
afternoon storms are possible with the increased warm advection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Pretty much kept with the ideas from the prior set of TAFs.
Overall, surface winds look to remain on the lower side, with the
possible exception of KDVL, which may see breezy afternoon winds.
There may be a few cumulus around by afternoon, but more confident
on just keeping the high thin smoke layer.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Godon


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