552
FXUS63 KFGF 151835
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
135 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
  evening, primarily for portions of west central Minnesota.
  Hail and damaging wind gusts are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...Synopsis...

Upper flow remains out of the west this afternoon as zonal H5 winds
prevail. Shortwave activity at the H7 level continues to bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms as cooler air slowly works
into the region from the north to northeast. This pattern is
expected to persist through much of this week and into the weekend,
with several chances for precipitation Friday through next Tuesday.
Temperatures are expected to be in the lower range of normal values
through early next week. Regarding precipitation, ongoing showers
will keep a mention of precip in the forecast for Wednesday morning,
with the next chance of rain expected on Friday. While thunderstorms
are possible Friday, instability will be rather low, with little
support for organized thunderstorm development. A better scenario
for strong storms is evident on Sunday (40% chance of CAPE greater
than 1000 J/Kg ), and even more so on Monday (80% chance of CAPE
greater than 1000 J/Kg). The primary uncertainty will be the timing
of a 700mb shortwave that will facilitate the development of a theta-
e gradient boundary, thus providing an axis for thunderstorm
development. Currently, 70 percent of GEFS ensemble members show
some degree of strong thunderstorm potential as we head into Monday
of next week.

...Severe Thunderstorms this Afternoon and Evening...

Instability this afternoon will depend upon how much heating takes
place at the surface. With overcast skies, this may prove
challenging; however, elevated instability should be high enough to
allow stronger storms to develop along a theta-e boundary stretching
from Richland County, through Wilkin and Otter Tail Counties, then
into Wadena and the adjacent areas. This boundary continues to move
slowly to the southeast this afternoon. MUCAPE values are in the mid
3000 J/Kg range to the south of the boundary, with MLCAPE as high as
2500 to 3000 J/Kg. Surface to 3km shear is supportive of organized
clusters or brief supercells, with only marginal support in the 0-6
km layer. The primary concern this afternoon will be large hail up
to the size of ping pong balls and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.
A tornado cannot be ruled out; however, the better chances for
tornadoes will be further into central and southern portions of
Minnesota.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

MVFR ceilings prevail at all TAF sites this afternoon. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through the
afternoon and evening, with a few strong to severe thunderstorms
possible to the southeast of KFAR. North to northeast winds
continue through the forecast period, increasing this afternoon
and evening. Gusts to near 25 knots are possible this evening
before tapering off after midnight. Winds are expected to
increase once more on Tuesday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch