Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 301109
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
609 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No significant changes to the previous forecast were necessary
with this morning`s update. Isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity still looks possible in parts of Central Texas through
the day, particularly in the afternoon with diurnal heating.
Areas farther north should be a bit too subsident to support
convection, although a stray shower as far north as I-20 cannot be
completely ruled out. Very light winds will make the combination
of heat and humidity feel all the more oppressive through most of
the day, and the current Heat Advisory configuration is in good
shape at this time.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Through Tonight/

It`ll be another seasonably hot and humid day as we remain
positioned on the southern periphery of an upper ridge. Subsident
air over most of North Texas should allow for mostly sunny skies
aside from a few high clouds passing by within easterly flow
aloft. While the combination of temperatures and dewpoints should
be sufficient to meet Heat Advisory criteria in much of North and
East Texas, a more dense cirrus canopy over parts of Central
Texas may hold afternoon highs a couple of degrees lower which
should hold heat indices below 105. The only adjustment to the
ongoing Heat Advisory was to add Ellis and Navarro counties for
this afternoon.

Otherwise, Central Texas will be the favored location for
diurnally driven convective development once again. This area
should be far enough removed from the upper ridge to allow for
percolating updrafts coinciding with peak heating. 20% PoPs have
been maintained roughly south of Waco`s latitude, but coverage is
expected to be lower than yesterday afternoon`s activity. Cannot
completely rule out some shower activity farther north towards
I-20, but coverage would be less than 10%.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 420 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021/
/This Weekend Through Next Week/

A weakening ridge axis will continue approaching from the north on
Saturday. Mid-level heights will not be extraordinary for the end
of July, but high temperatures will still reach or exceed normal
values (particularly along and north of the I-20 corridor where
the subsidence will be maximized). When combined with unseasonably
rich boundary layer moisture, a greater proportion of the region
will meet/exceed heat advisory criteria. As a result, the advisory
will expand at midday Saturday to include all but our
southwesternmost counties. The advisory will likely need to be
extended into Sunday, but with uncertainties about the arrival of
a cold front and any associated precipitation, those details will
be confirmed with a subsequent forecast package.

A pattern shift will reposition the ridge meridianally through the
Rockies and desert states of Mexico. This will introduce northwest
flow into Texas that will persist throughout the upcoming week. A
cold front embedded in the flow will surge into the Southern
Plains on Sunday, likely initiating afternoon thunderstorms. Even
if the front doesn`t technically invade North Texas Sunday
afternoon, associated outflow and additional convective initiation
on these boundaries may occur south of the synoptic-scale wind
shift. More widespread showers and storms are expected Sunday
night and Monday as the front dives deep into Texas, bringing an
end to our bout of heat. The Lone Star State will remain
positioned between ridging in the West and troughing in the East,
keeping milder temperatures and rain chances throughout the week.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with south winds around 5-8
kts. Skies will be mostly clear outside of scattered cirrus and
some diurnal cumulus. There may be some afternoon convective
activity in Central Texas, but the expected isolated coverage does
not currently warrant inclusion of VCSH/VCTS at the Waco TAF
site. Depending on trends, this potential may be introduced later
today.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  80 100  80 100 /  10   0   5   0  30
Waco                96  77  97  78  98 /  20   5   5   0  20
Paris               97  77  98  78  97 /   0   0   5   0  40
Denton              99  77 100  77  98 /   5   0   5   0  30
McKinney            98  78  98  78  97 /   5   0   5   0  30
Dallas              99  82 100  82 100 /  10   0   5   0  30
Terrell             97  77  97  77  97 /   5   0   5   0  20
Corsicana           96  77  97  78  97 /  10   5   5   0  20
Temple              95  74  97  76  98 /  20   5  10   0  20
Mineral Wells       96  74  98  75  97 /  10   5   5   0  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ091-100>102-
115>117-131>133-144-145-147-158>162-174-175.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123-134-135-146-148.

&&

$$


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