Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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197 FXUS63 KICT 060809 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 309 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous severe storms will impact much of the region for today-tonight with a Severe Weather Outbreak possibly affecting southern Kansas - More storms possible on Wednesday across far southeast Kansas - Dry and quiet weather conditions expected for Thursday-Sunday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Current satellite water vapory imagery shows a large/robust upper level low pressure system spinning over Idaho with a long extended jet stream rounding the base of the trough into the southwestern states. The strength of the jet stream winds aloft has kept increasing by the models from Friday until now with a current jet max(110-130kt). This jet max(exit region) will push out into the Texas panhandle/western Oklahoma with a west to east alignment this afternoon then spread eastward into the night time hours. Strong forcing from upper trough will pivot in a negative fashion over western Kansas by late morning/early afternoon, thus causing a line of storms to rapidly develop. This line of storms will intensify and spread southward as it moves east towards central Kansas between 2PM- 4PM. The key things to watch for today will be storm mode on radar which will tell us how the atmosphere is dictating storm organization, along with timing of low clouds scouring out which will predicate magnitude of instability. Wind shear vector orientation favors liner storm mode for central Kansas with more perpendicular alignment crossing over the dry-line in far southern Kansas/Oklahoma(better opportunity for discrete supercells). Also any storm that can develop east of the line of storms would be a concern for discrete supercell mode and have a favorable environment to itself. The 4PM to 8PM time frame across south central Kansas into Oklahoma looks like the window when things could be at peak severity(most favorable area for a Severe Weather Outbreak to occur). This is when clearing of low clouds begins and stronger winds aloft from upper jet influence the region, thus causing a boost to instability and wind shear aloft. Favorable low LCLs and hodographs shapes suggests strong tornadic potential. Any discrete supercell in this environment would be capable of producing very damaging winds up to 80mph, giant hail up to softball size, and strong potentially longer-track tornadoes. After 8PM this volatile environment will begin to spread into southeast Kansas where a continuation of higher end severe weather is likely. As main upper level low pressure system sits and churns over the Dakotas for Tuesday into Wednesday. Models show an embedded short wave rotating around the base of the upper trough across northern Kansas/Nebraska late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Thunderstorms could develop over far southeast Kansas Wednesday. The weather pattern looks to remain rather quiet Thursday-Sunday with surface high pressure dominating over the region this period. Daytime highs will hover around seasonal averages with lighter wind speeds Friday- Sunday making for some pleasant weather days. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 - IFR and LIFR CIG/VSBYs through 15Z this morning - Good chance for strong to severe thunderstorms after 19Z IFR and LIFR CIGs and VSBYs are likely for the first six to eight hours of the TAF period. This will primarily affect the KCNU terminals with some MVFR VSBYs but IFR CIGs at KICT. The remaining terminals are likely to see IFR CIGs through the first six to eight hours. After 17Z today, there is a chance for some clearing in the KRSL, KGBD area before the next weather system approaches. Thunderstorms are expected but the timing of this thunderstorm activity is still in question. As such, not confidence enough to do more than a PROB30 for this TAF cycle. Thunderstorms that do occur are likely to be strong or severe. Best chance for the thunderstorm activity will be after 19Z. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ070>072- 094>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDJ AVIATION...ELM