Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 270747

National Weather Service Wilmington OH
347 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

High pressure and summertime heat will persist through midweek.
Humidity returns on Wednesday into Thursday, with increased
storm chances by Thursday as a front approaches. High pressure
builds back into the region by the end of the week and persists
into the start of the weekend with slightly drier and cooler


Surface high pressure stretched across the Ohio Valley and a
deep mid-level ridge over the central US supports another hot
summer day. Some scattered upper level cirrus provided by
overnight convection may enter from the north, but otherwise,
abundant sunshine is expected. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s
should keep heat indices near ambient temperatures. Abundant
sunshine and light winds are forecast so the wet-bulb globe
temperature (WBGT) variable provides a little more insight to
the potential dangers to heat exhaustion this afternoon. For
today, all of the area is under moderate levels, which means
prolonged outdoor activities should be planned with discretion.


Surface high pressure remains overhead Tuesday night and into
Wednesday morning. Deeper moisture begins to advect into the
area with surface dewpoints climbing into the mid and upper 60s.
Temperatures in the 90s results in heat indices in the mid 90s.
The WBGT levels reach the high category across the tri-state
which means outdoor exposure should be limited.

During the late afternoon/evening, a weak pressure trough and
frontal boundary move in from the north, bringing in lower
dewpoints and a wind shift out of the northwest. A band of
deeper moisture will be in place along the front, however,
forecast soundings remain fairly dry. Due to the weak lift
associated with the front, decided to keep the forecast dry.
Can`t rule out an isolated shower or storm along the front late
in the day on Wednesday.

Attention then shifts to a potential thunderstorm complex
moving through the Great Lakes region during the evening and
overnight hours.


A mid level short wave will drop down southeast across the
western Great Lakes Wednesday night. An increasing low level jet
ahead of this will result in a developing MCS over Wisconsin
Wednesday evening which will track southeast toward our area
overnight, possibly reaching our far northern areas toward
daybreak and will allow for a 20 pop late to account for this.

The remnants of the MCS will likely affect at least northern
portions of our fa into Thursday morning and it is tough to tell
exactly how this may affect pcpn chances heading into Thursday
afternoon. For now will continue with afternoon highs ranging
from the upper 80s north to the low to possibly mid 90s in our
south which would result in decent destabilization through the
afternoon. With a boundary pushing south through our area, we
should see at least scattered thunderstorm activity shifting
south across our area Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
Strengthening mid level flow through the day and increasing
deeper layer shear will lead to the possibility of at least a
few severe storms with damaging wind the primary threat. Some
locally heavy rainfall will also be possible as an axis of 2 to
2.5 inch PWs will shift south across our area through the day.

High pressure and a drier, cooler airmass will then settle into
the region for Friday into Saturday in continued northwest flow
aloft. Some weak short wave energy could lead to a few showers
for Sunday as the upper level trough deepens over the Great
Lakes region through early next week. This will result in below
normal temperatures with highs mostly in the upper 70s to lower
80s through the remainder of the long term period.


Surface high pressure provides light and variable winds along
with prevailing VFR restrictions.

.OUTLOOK... Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into
Thursday night.




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