Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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FXUS62 KKEY 301418

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1018 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Scattered showers developed early this morning in the Straits of
Florida and pushed northward towards the island chain, likely
driven by a combination of nocturnal instability and weak speed
convergence. KBYX radar seems to suggest daytime heating has
allowed much of this activity to generally wane, and this trend is
expected to continue this afternoon. The 12z sounding showed a
well-defined nose of drier air between 850-800 mb. The 500 mb
geopotential heights also sampled at 2 dam higher than yesterday
at the same time, evidence that ridging and associated subsidence
continues to emerge. These would indicate cumulus cloud line
formation may be a bit harder to come by today compared to the
previous two days, although it certainly is not out of the
conversation, given moist conditions below 850 mb and light
steering flow. The forecast remains on track and no major changes
are needed or planned to the short- term forecast at this time.


There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the
Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a ridge of high
pressure will continue to build into the Florida Peninsula this
afternoon. This will result in light to gentle east to southeast
breezes over the Florida Keys coastal waters through the weekend.
Rain chances today through Sunday will be slightly below normal,
with near normal rainfall coverage returning Sunday night through
the early part of next week.


VFR conditions will prevail at both the EYW and MTH terminals today
with brief bouts of MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities possible with
passing showers this morning. Due to early morning showers near both
terminals, VCSH has been included through the early evening with
TEMPOs and amendments likely with approaching showers. Otherwise,
winds will be southeast from 5 to 8 knots.


On this day in 1933, the daily record high temperature of 94 degrees
was recorded. Temperature records in Key West date back to 1872.

Also of note, in 1715, a Hurricane in or near Bahamas and Florida
Keys sunk four ships, resulting in 1000-2500 deaths.




Data Acquisition.....KR

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