Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 270652
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
152 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light and variable
return flow. Forecast soundings develop a widespread, high-based
cu field from late morning to early afternoon. Convection will be
possible late Tuesday afternoon/night, but will be sparse.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

WV imagery shows the upper ridge has shifted east over the past
24 hours, and is now centered over WY/CO. This feature is forecast
to move a little farther east over the next 48 hours, but remain
over the central Rockies and Central Plains. This will continue to
keep the low level thermal ridge west and northwest of the CWA.
However, temperatures this afternoon should be similar to
yesterday`s, if not a degree or two warmer, and the NBM seems to
have a good handle on this. Wednesday, models are in agreement in
dropping thicknesses, as well as increasing cloud cover a bit, as
an upper trough passes south of the Big Bend Area. This should
result in highs dropping below normal by a few degrees. Overnight
mins have plateaued a few degrees above normal the past few
nights, and w/low-level Gulf moisture advection remaining steady,
should remain so tonight.

W/respect to rain, yesterday`s convective coverage was
considerably less than Sunday`s, and looks to be even less today.
Models develop convection off the Sacramentos this afternoon, some
of which could make it into the Guadalupes, and some activity
could develop on a shortwave moving into the Western Low Rolling
Plains. However, chances look isolated at best. Wednesday,
however, looks to be our best chance for rain this forecast, on
the northern edge of the aforementioned trough passing south of
the Big Bend Area. Even so, chances will remain modest.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

The dog days of summer have definitely arrived. The upper air
pattern will become stagnant the end of this week and into the
weekend as high pressure remains settled over the Central Plains
leaving West Texas and southeastern New Mexico under deep
southeasterly flow. The high center and associated ridge axis will
drift slowly southward over time increasing subsidence and
gradually sending temperatures higher from Thursday through Sunday
though fortunately the heat will not exceed what we normally see
this time of year. Rain chances will mostly be confined to the
Pecos River valley and higher elevations to the west where either
higher temperatures or orographics will be enough to initiate
isolated to scattered convection.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               98  73  94  71 /  10  10  20  10
Carlsbad                 98  71  96  70 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                  100  75  95  73 /   0   0  20  20
Fort Stockton            98  73  93  71 /   0   0  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           90  70  88  67 /  10   0  10  10
Hobbs                    95  71  92  68 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                    92  63  88  61 /   0   0  30  20
Midland Intl Airport     98  73  92  71 /   0  10  20  10
Odessa                   97  73  92  71 /   0  10  20  10
Wink                    100  74  94  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...44


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