Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 270814
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
414 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall to the north and dissipate through mid
week. Another weak cold front will approach from the northwest
late week then stall and dissipate over the area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 245 AM Tue...Busy night as well defined gust front slowly
pushed S with active convection. Main concern was training
cells over parts of the coastal plain that dropped 4+ inches
over good chunk of Greene County. Appears the convection is grad
shifting to the W and expect limited coverage by daybreak. With
heating today shld see muggy highs 85 to 90. Convection will
likely redevelop init near cst thru mid to late morn then shift
inland grad this aftn. Precip wtr values above 2 inches combined
with decent instab and weak forcing from short waves rotating
thru base of broad ern upr trf will given decent cvrg with
locally heavy downpours again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Tue...Axis of deep moisture pushes slowly E and
expect shra and tsra to grad taper off inland with better focus
close to cst late. Cont prev fcst trends of slight chc deep
inland to high chc/likely cst after 06Z. Lows once again in the
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Fairly active pattern through the long
term with multiple cold fronts expected to approach the area,
stall, and have some cyclogenesis along the boundaries. Lull on
Thurs and Fri lead to hot days with the potential for heat
advisories being issued before another round of FROPA and this
weekend.

Wednesday...Unsettled pattern with the upper ridge remaining
over central CONUS and a trough extending down from eastern
Canada with the base passing through the Carolinas. Deeper
moisture advects into the area combined with increased upper
support and low pressure developing along the SFC trough axis
to our west and south.

Thursday and Friday...Heat is the highlight of this period as
the upper level trough shallows and the ridge extends eastward
providing more zonal flow aloft and our area in the warm sector
of the weak low at the surface. 500mb heights reaching into the
590s. With mostly dry conditions and dewpoints in the mid 70s,
heat index values are expected between 100 and 105 Thursday and
105 to 110 Friday, increasing the likelihood of a heat advisory
late in the week. A cold front approaches the area late Friday.
Still some disagreement between timing of the front and how well
the airmasses stay together before washing out, but rain
chances increase again late Friday afternoon.

Weekend...At the SFC, the weakened front passes through early
Saturday while a broad upper level trough begins to deepen over
NE CONUS. Another surface low develops along the front as it
stalls over the region, keeping rain chances up. Increased cloud
cover and showers keep highs in the upper 80s touching 90 in hot
spots.

Early Next Week...Another cold front pushed by high pressure at
the SFC building down from over the Great Lakes approaches the
area, increasing the chance of rain again.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 06Z Wed/...
As of 1220 AM Tue...Outflow driven thunderstorms cont to bisect
the region with overall weakening trend noted past hour. Expect
will see some pds of sub VFR thru 12z espcly inland and N where
it rained as low lvls are saturated with winds light in wake of
convection. After sunrise shld see conditions grad return to
VFR by mid to late morn and cont in that range thru rest of
period. Will again have convection firing this aftn into the
evening that could result in brief period or two of sub VFR.

LONG TERM /Tue night through Friday/...
As of 345 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Thursday and Friday mainly will be dry while diurnal
showers and thunderstorms are expected through the rest of the
period, especially out ahead of an approaching cold front late
Friday into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 245 AM Tue...Gust front is washing out over srn tier and
expect pred SW flow all wtrs by daybreak that will cont thru
fcst period with high pres offshore. Speeds mostly 10 to 15 kts
with seas 2 to 4 ft.

LONG TERM /Wed through Friday/...
As of 345 AM Tuesday...Offshore high pressure will remain in
control through the period. SW winds 5-15 kt continues through
Thu morning, increasing to 15-20 kt late Thu into Friday. Seas
will mostly be 2-3 ft through the period, with 3-4 ft seas
across the outer waters starting Thursday night during period of
stronger flow from a tightened pressure gradient ahead of an
approaching cold front. Friday, central coastal waters to Cape
Lookout experience winds 15-20kts with gusts reaching 25kts. Too
early for SCA with so much uncertainty with timing of front but
likelihood of one being issued is increasing.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...RF/CEB
MARINE...RF/CEB


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