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000
FXUS64 KSJT 281129
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
629 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

Spotty showers and storms continue across West Central Texas early
this morning, with satellite showing extensive mid level
cloudiness. This mid level instability along the periphery of the
upper level ridge will continue today, and will aid in the
development of showers and storms this afternoon in the same area.
Models suggest best POPs across the Concho Valley and Heartland,
and will continue the mention of 20%-40% POPs across the area.
Otherwise, a little more cloud cover today will keep temperatures
down a few degrees with highs mainly in the mid and upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

An upper level ridge will be centered across the Central Great
Plains on Thursday. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is
possible Thursday afternoon, mainly across our southeast counties.
Otherwise, expect mainly dry conditions, with highs in the mid to
upper 90s. A slow warm-up is then forecast Friday into the
weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the upper 90s to
near 100 degrees.

Late Saturday into Sunday, the aforementioned upper level trough
will weaken, with a large trough developing across the northern
Great Plains/Great Lakes region. This will send a weak cold front
into West Central Texas Sunday night. This boundary is then
forecast to stall and become diffuse during the early part of next
week. This will bring an increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms along with cooler temperatures. For now, kept PoPs
generally in the slight chance category, but these may eventually
need to be increased. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s.

During the middle to latter half of next week, models are hinting at
an upper level ridge strengthening across the western CONUS, putting
West Central Texas in northwest flow aloft. If this were to verify,
this would result in a continuation of rain chances, along with near
to possibly below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

Scattered showers and storms continue across portions of the
area, but mainly only affecting the KABI terminal this morning.
Even this should dissipate by mid morning, with models a little
less aggressive on additional storm development later this
afternoon. Will leave the rest of the forecast dry with VFR
conditions and light winds prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  74  96  75 /  20  20  10   0
San Angelo  96  72  96  72 /  30  20  10   5
Junction  95  72  95  71 /  30  20  10   0
Brownwood  96  73  96  74 /  20  20  10   0
Sweetwater  95  72  95  74 /  20  20   5   5
Ozona       94  71  94  72 /  30  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...07