347
FXUS64 KSJT 140001
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
701 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch is in Effect for west central Texas mainly for the
  Northwest Hill Country and Heartland through 1 AM Monday.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight) Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Jul
13 2025

...Flood watch is in effect mainly along and south of I-20 until
1 PM...

WPC has a moderate risk of excessive rainfall in the Concho
Valley/Heartland/N. Edwards Plateau and NW Hill Country tonight.

At 145 AM CDT, band of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall extended
from east of Abilene to Coleman to San Saba at 145 AM, with
another area of showers and thunderstorms from San Angelo to
Menard, Ft McKavett and Sonora. Precipital water amounts were
high, 1.5 to 2 inches, with the highest values to the east.

Short term models continue to generate showers and thunderstorms
into Sunday morning, particularly from Coleman and Brownwood south
to Brady, Mason and Junction. The HRRR model also builds
convection west toward San Angelo toward daybreak (which already
is seeing storms). By 9 to 10 AM this morning, most of the
rainfall is in Menard/Mason/Kimble counties, which moves south of
West Central Texas by 1 PM, ending most of the heavy rainfall
threat. 1 to 3 inches of rainfall possible, with local amounts of
5 to 8 inches.

This afternoon heating, and could produce a quick 1/2 inch of
rainfall, but flood threat is significantly diminished. A few
showers may still possible overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Upper ridging and subsidence will gradually build in from the west
this week, but West Central Texas will still be in a weak trough
aloft. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday into
Wednesday. As the atmosphere will be slightly tropical, there
could be locally heavy downpours, but no organized flooding
likely. Mainly dry conditions expected by Thursday. High
Temperatures warm up into the lower to mid 90s will still be in a
weak trough aloft. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday
into Wednesday. As the atmosphere will be slightly tropical,
there could be locally heavy downpours, but no organized flooding
likely. Mainly dry conditions expected by Thursday. High
Temperatures warm up into the lower to mid 90s

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours
although KJCT could see a few hours of MVFR cigs in the early
morning hours. Otherwise, winds will be light/variable overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  90  73  92 /   0  20  10  10
San Angelo  68  88  71  90 /  10  30  10  20
Junction    68  87  71  88 /  40  50  20  30
Brownwood   69  88  72  89 /  30  40  10  20
Sweetwater  70  91  72  93 /  10  10  10  10
Ozona       68  87  70  87 /  10  30  20  20
Brady       68  86  70  87 /  40  50  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for Brown-Crockett-Kimble-
Mason-McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Schleicher-Sutton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...42