Text Products for AFD Issued by TSA

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 270851
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
351 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Excessive heat potential will remain the primary theme of this
forecast, along with a continued chance of thunderstorms for
today.

Axis of anomalously high moisture marked by precipitable water
over 2 inches, along with diffuse frontal boundary, extends
across southeast OK this morning, continuing to be pushed south
with time. This area will remain the focus for scattered afternoon
storms, and with expected slow movement and efficient rain
production, maintain a locally heavy rain threat generally along
and south of I-40. Atmosphere will also support a threat for
localized strong downdrafts as well.

Rain chances will continue to trend down the next few days as
upper ridging expands over the southern plains from the north.
Actual temperatures will trend up into the weekend with eventual
lowering of dew points, but not before a couple more days of very
high values of mid-upper 70s, especially over northeast OK where
soil moisture remains quite high. Heat index values of 105 to 110
will be common as a result with a few spots even higher. The heat
advisory will be left in its current configuration and will likely
be needed for a few more afternoons.

Indication remain that a frontal boundary will be driven south
toward the area by early next week as ridge retrogrades and
amplifies over the west, perhaps bringing another chance of
storms along with some reprieve from the heat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  76  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   96  76  98  76 /  20  10  10   0
MLC   95  74  95  75 /  30  10  10   0
BVO   95  74  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   93  71  95  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   94  72  96  73 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   94  75  95  75 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   94  74  95  74 /  10   0   0   0
F10   95  74  96  74 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   94  75  95  76 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....14

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office