370
FXUS64 KTSA 140507
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1207 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms probable (20-60% chance)
again today; best chances across southeast Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Potential for locally heavy rainfall possible.

 - Rain/storm chances become more spotty and diurnally driven by
Tuesday, with the best coverage shifting to the northeast of the
area.

 - A weak front approaching the area from the north will bring
chances for storms for far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest
Arkansas Thursday into Thursday night.

 - Precipitation chances drop off and temperatures increase by the
end of the week as ridging tries to build in aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Latest satellite imagery shows a mid/upper-level shortwave
trough/MCV continuing to shift eastward over southwest MO/northwest
AR. Another MCV was observed via satellite, just southwest of the
DFW metro, drifting northeastward. This MCV is expected to drift
across northeast TX and along the Red River overnight tonight (and
eventually over western AR later in the day) and will likely result
in additional shower/thunderstorm activity near the Red River after
midnight and through the early morning hours this morning.

Weak troughing/lower heights will remain present over the forecast
area today, courtesy of the MCV lifting northeast out of Texas,
sandwiched between two upper-level highs centered over the southern
CA coast and northern Gulf coast. At the surface, a weak and ill-
defined stationary frontal boundary will meander near the I-44
corridor through the daytime. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop again once daytime heating
gets going. Best chances (30-60%) should remain along and south of I-
44, where the best moisture and highest PWATs (1.75-2.00 inches)
remain present. Not really anticipating much in the way of severe
storms at this time, though a few may potentially become strong. But
if storms are able to cluster and/or train, heavy rainfall will
become likely and may lead to flooding/flash flooding. It`s worth
noting that the overall flooding potential should be isolated and
localized, if the potential arises, and widespread flooding/flash
flooding is not expected. Otherwise, another unseasonably cool mid-
July day, albeit slightly warmer than yesterday, underneath a
mixture of sun and clouds is expected across eastern OK and
northwest AR, with afternoon highs reaching the mid-upper 80s.

Lastly, patchy fog may develop a few hours before sunrise this
morning, specifically across northeast OK and northwest AR.
Widespread dense fog isn`t anticipated at this time. Any fog that
develops will lift and erode by mid-morning.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Precipitation chances will continue to decrease and shift eastward
beginning tonight and on Tuesday as mid/upper-level ridging from the
Gulf begins to retrograde over the Southern Plains and the deep
moisture axis shifts eastward. Cannot completely rule out a few
spotty showers/storms (20-30% chance) south and and east of I-44
during the daytime Tuesday, but most locations should remain dry.

A weak cold front will approach the area sometime on Thursday, which
models have slowed down over the past few runs. The front will
likely stall north of the forecast area sometime on Friday. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to form ahead of the frontal boundary
and may impact northern portions of the CWA Thursday into Thursday
night. Better details will come in later forecast updates.

The aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge will shift westward over
the Plains late in the week and into the upcoming weekend,
substantially decreasing precipitation chances and increasing
temperatures. Overall, temperatures will gradually increase each day
through the long-term, with unseasonably warm temperatures expected
by Thursday or Friday.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Most areas will remain dry overnight, with just a few showers
ongoing near KFSM. A few spotty showers will remain possible
anywhere overnight, but focusing in southeast OK and northwest AR.
Elsewhere, clearing skies will allow for patchy fog formation.
Added tempo groups to several TAF sites with reduced visibility
towards dawn. A weak storm system will redevelop ceilings for most
areas in the 3-4 kft layer during the day Monday, with showers and
storms for southeast OK and northwest AR once again. The main
impacts will be brief heavy rain, lightning, and locally gusty
winds. Skies will clear for all areas by late evening. Winds will
be light and variable through the period away from storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  71  88  72 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   86  73  86  73 /  30  50  50  30
MLC   85  70  86  72 /  40  30  40  20
BVO   88  67  88  69 /  30  20  10   0
FYV   83  68  83  69 /  40  30  40  20
BYV   83  68  83  69 /  50  30  50  20
MKO   84  70  85  71 /  20  20  30  10
MIO   83  68  86  70 /  60  20  20  10
F10   84  69  86  71 /  10  20  20  10
HHW   85  70  86  71 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...06