Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
000
FNUS72 KMLB 290818
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for HHBCWMA Unit 53...FWC
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
418 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on July 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Continued warm and moist with scattered to numerous
afternoon showers and lightning storms. Storm steering flow remains
weak with variable movement. Primary storm threats continue to be
frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, and torrential downpours.
20 FT and transport winds will be light with poor dispersion.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms late
                    in the morning and early afternoon. Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms from mid through late
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1100, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest to west around 5 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1300-2300 ft AGL increasing to 4500-5000 ft AGL
                    late in the morning and early afternoon, then
                    decreasing to 2600 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 2 to 5 mph increasing up to around 9 by late
                    in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....Increasing to around 20.
LVORI...............7 decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........34  34  55  55  55  70  70  70  70
Weather cov.....        SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  20  30  30  40  50  60  60
LAL.............1   1   2   2   2   3   3   3   3
Temp............80  83  87  88  89  90  89  88  87
RH..............82  77  72  68  64  62  64  66  65
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   W   W   W   SW  S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 2.3 3.4 4.3 4.7 5.0 4.8 3.8 2.6
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.2   3   3   3   3   3   6   8   9
Dispersion idx..6   10  14  14  13  13  15  18  20
LVORI...........7   5   3   2   2   2   2   2   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms early in the
                    evening, then chance of showers and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms into mid evening.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2000, then 1-8 strikes until
                    2300, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......300-500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest to west 2 to 8 mph.
Dispersion index....Decreasing to 1 or 2.
LVORI...............Increasing to 8.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........70     64     64     64     34     34
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60     30     30     10     10     10
LAL.............3      2      2      1      1      1
Temp............85     80     78     77     76     75
RH..............70     85     91     94     94     97
20 ft wind......S 5    SE 3   S 2    S 1    SW 1   SW 1
20 ft wind gust.
Mix hgt (ft)....1900   700    500    400    400    300
Transport wind..W 8    W 3    SW 3   SW 3   W 2    SW 3
Dispersion idx..14     2      2      1      1      1
LVORI...........4      5      6      7      8      8

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning and early
                    afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the
                    mid to late afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0800, then 16-25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......300-800 ft AGL increasing to 4400-4900 ft AGL
                    late in the morning and early afternoon, then
                    decreasing to 2100 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest to West 2 to 6 mph.
Dispersion index....Increasing to around 24.
LVORI...............8 decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........34        25        36        61
Weather cov.....          LIKELY    LIKELY    LIKELY
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........          LIKELY    LIKELY    LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).10        20        30        60
LAL.............1         4         4         4
Temp............74        79        88        92
RH..............100       82        61        52
20 FT wind......SW 1      SW 3      SW 6      SW 7
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1400      3700      4000
Transport wind..SW 3      SW 3      SW 5      W 6
Dispersion idx..2         6         22        24
LVORI...........8         4         2         2

$$
Forecaster...Sedlock
Requested by...Melanie Mancuso
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2116538.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/29/21
.EMAIL melanie.mancuso@myfwc.com


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.