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000
FXUS62 KTAE 210131
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
931 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A batch of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving through
central Alabama this evening. The forecast track of these storms
is forecast to be along our northern border, so along Coffee,
Dale, and Henry counties in Alabama and over into Quitman and
Randolph Counties in Georgia. It is forecast to arrive around
9:30/10pm CDT for northwestern Coffee County and as early as
midnight for our Georgia Counties. Following this batch of
showers and storms, rain chances dwindle the rest of the night,
although an isolated sprinkle or two cannot be entirely ruled out
for our southeastern Alabama counties through dawn.

Otherwise, only minor tweaks were made to the forecast to account
for the latest trends. There is also the potential for fog across
the area, mainly along a line from Tifton to Destin and points
south.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Showers and storms have been a little slow to develop this
afternoon thanks to abundant cloud cover from this morning.
However, recent satellite/radar observations have shown showers
and storms steadily developing across southern Alabama and into
Georgia roughly along a frontal boundary that extends from Troy,
AL into central Georgia north of Ashburn. This boundary is
expected to slowly drift south through the remainder of the
afternoon with continued heating driving the additional
development of showers and storms. Storms are not currently severe
but with continued diurnal heating expect a few strong, possibly
severe, storms to develop thanks to fairly steep low-level lapse
rates and plenty of instability. Main concerns with storms will
be an isolated damaging wind gust and possibly some hail in the
strongest storms. With low-level shear largely lacking, the
tornado threat will be very small and near zero but a brief spin
up can`t be ruled out if storms encounter a favorable boundary.

For tonight, shower and storm activity will largely diminish, but
a few isolated showers could persist overnight as mostly cloudy
conditions prevail. A mostly mild night is anticipated for all
except our southeast Alabama counties where the front moving in
will begin to drop temperatures into the lower 60s.

Another round of storms is possible tomorrow as the final upper
level trough moves through. A few storms will develop but with
cloudy conditions in the morning, and most of the showers being
behind the front, the overall severe risk will be lower on Sunday
and will shift south. Where the risk for a few of these strong
storms sets up will largely depend on how today`s (Saturday)
convection evolves. If the cold pool from today`s storms remains
further north, it`s possible more locations in the Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend will see storms tomorrow. Otherwise, a
boundary further south will push much of tomorrows storm potential
into more south and eastern portions of the Florida Big Bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Cooler and drier conditions are forecast to filter into the area
in the wake of Sunday`s cold front. Monday is forecast to actually
be quite nice with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and dew
points mostly in the 40s. Monday night will likely be the coolest
of the period with favorable conditions for radiational cooling
and lows in the mid 40s to near 50.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A warming and moistening trend is on track for the long term with
highs climbing back into the mid to upper 80s by Friday. A very weak
cold front is actually forecast to push southward through the
area on Wednesday night but is not expected to have much impact on
temperatures. No rainfall is expected with its passage either, and
it is expected to stall out south of the area over the Gulf.
Eventually, it may begin to slide back northward towards the tail
end of the period, but impacts are not expected from it at this
point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail a few more hours
as most of the showers and thunderstorms are now well away from
the aerodromes. However, a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms has developed in Mississippi and Alabama and is
forecast to head east as the evening progresses, possibly nearing
KDHN by 04Z and KABY by 08Z in a weakening state. Otherwise,
expect most sites to drop to MVFR to IFR ceilings later tonight. Fog
is a concern at KECP and KTLH again tonight with a low to
moderate chance (20 to 40 percent) of both sites briefly dropping
below 1sm.

A cold front will finally push through the region early Sunday
morning, possibly bringing another round of showers, maybe a
thunderstorm or two for KTLH and KVLD. Winds are forecast to turn
more northwesterly behind the front as MVFR ceilings stick around
through much of Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A cold front is expected to pass through the waters on Sunday into
Sunday night with cautionary conditions in its wake. Winds and
seas are forecast to subside again by Monday night. Fairly benign
boating conditions are expected through the rest of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Cool conditions Sunday and Monday combined with recent rains should
keep fire weather concerns low through the early part of next week.
Drier conditions will develop through much of next week and areas
that miss out on rainfall this weekend could see some low-end fire
concerns creep into the forecast by next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Flooding continues along the Withlacoochee River, St Marks River,
Aucilla River, and the Suwannee River this afternoon. The
Withlacoochee, St Marks, and Aucilla rivers have crest and will
continue to recede over the coming days. Points along the Suwannee
River will continue to rise as they process upstream flow, and
some will likely remain in flood stage for at least the next 5 to
7 days.

Additional rainfall will be possible along a cold front today and
Sunday, but overall totals are not expected to be high enough to
meaningfully impact the ongoing flooding.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   67  78  55  71 /  10  70  20   0
Panama City   69  75  54  74 /  10  70  10   0
Dothan        64  65  50  71 /  30  70  10   0
Albany        64  67  53  68 /  30  70  20   0
Valdosta      67  79  55  68 /  10  70  40  10
Cross City    63  81  57  72 /   0  30  50  10
Apalachicola  69  75  57  73 /  10  50  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Sunday for
     FLZ112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Reese
NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield